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Deutsche Bank
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25 bps rate cutThe critical part is whether the ECB will drop the "restrictive" label from its official stanceA complete drop would be too hawkishSo, there might just be some slight modification i.e. “less restrictive” or “hardly restrictive anymore”Societe Generale
25 bps rate cutReference to "restrictive" should remainThat would suggest another rate cut at the next meeting in AprilThat is in line with our call but we doubt that the data is sufficiently clear yet to send that messageAfter the April rate cut, ECB will be in a better position to reassess medium-term outlook and risksThat could see the ECB possibly shift to quarterly rate assessmentsBarclays
25 bps rate cutExpect the ECB to remain non-committal and data-dependentApril meeting is live and we forecast another rate cutExpect Lagarde to express similar views to January press conference as outlook is little changedWe anticipate consecutive 25 bps cuts until June, before proceeding with 25 bps cuts in September and December for a terminal deposit rate of 1.50%But Germany's fiscal reform could give the ECB a reason to reach a slightly higher terminal rate than we currently expect; though it doesn't change the terminal rate forecast itselfCIBC
25 bps rate cutGrowth projections likely to be downgraded in the coming yearThe risk is that the ECB pauses in April or JuneGuidance around timing and rate path to come will be the focal points this meetingGoldman Sachs
25 bps rate cutA softening of the language around "restrictive" is most likelyECB might prefer to say that policy remains "somewhat restrictive”We are looking for a small downgrade to growth, broadly unchanged core inflationECB to o reiterate that growth risks are to the downside and the disinflation process is well on trackA pause in April is “possible if disinflation stalls or if activity data surprises notably to the upside"We continue to think that rate cuts in both April and June are likelyThat will be followed by one additional cut in July for a terminal rate of 1.75% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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