Goodbye, California. Hello, Sunshine State!
The PGA Tour kicks off its Florida Swing today, moving to the southeast after spending four of the last six weeks in California. And this is where things start to get tense.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PLAYERS Championship will offer up two of the larger purses of the season in the coming weeks. But up first is the Cognizant Classic — formerly the Honda Classic — at PGA National Resort in Palm Beach Gardens.
It’s another weaker field following the Mexico Open and no one betting on the tournament should be upset about that. There is tons of value all over the board as we get closer to first round play on Thursday.
Let’s dig in.
All odds via BetMGM
Who’s winning the 2025 Cognizant Classic?
Jul 21, 2024; Ayrshire, SCT; Kurt Kitayama chips to the 12th green during the final round of the Open Championship golf tournament at Royal Troon. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY Sports
Kurt Kitayama (+4500) 2 Units
The Mexico Open saw Kitayama surprisingly miss the cut last week, but don’t let that cloud your judgement here. We’re a long way from Vallerta. The 32-year-old is an exceptional course fit this week, ranking top 10 on Tour in four of the five key indicators. Among all golfers who’ve played at least eight rounds at PGA National, Kitayama (+1.78) ranks first in true strokes gained at Data Golf — though he hasn’t played here since 2022 when he finished third.
Lucas Glover (+5500) 0.5 Units
We’re throwing a bit of a dart here, but stick with me. Glover has finished T35 or better each of his last three times at PGA National with 0.88 true strokes gained. He’s also top 30 on Tour in four of the five key indicators this week. Most importantly, he’s already shown up on the leaderboard in weaker fields, putting up a T3 at Pebble Beach and T21 in the Sony Open.
Who’s a lock to finish Top 10?
Jul 7, 2024; Silvis, Illinois, USA; Davis Thompson plays his shot from the fairway on the 12th hole during the final round of the John Deere Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Cress-USA TODAY Sports
Davis Thompson (+350) 2 Units
Thompson keeps getting close to breaking through this year, starting strong to begin the week only to fade on Saturday and Sunday. He got a lot closer his last time out with a T13 in a stacked Genesis Invitational field. Thompson’s putting is still a concern, but as long as he keeps sticking the ball on the green, he’s going to have plenty of birdie opportunities this week.
Luke Clanton (+375) 1 Unit
Clanton has missed the cut in two of his three starts this season. His other event was a T15 at the Farmers Insurance Open. All of which is to say, take this next sentence with a grain of salt. Across the five Course Fit indicators at PGA National, Clanton ranks No. 2, No. 2, No. 1, No. 4 and No. 95. It’s a very small sample size. Do with it what you will.
One-And-Done: Russell Henley
Mar 9, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Russell Henley plays his shot from the second tee during the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Is this pick an aggressive reaction to Patrick Rodgers shooting 67-68-66-72 to finish T25 at the Mexico Open? Yes, it sure is. Do we care? Nope. The purse this week is only $9.2 million. Any finish outside the Top 10 isn’t going to do us much good. So we’ll ride with Henley, who finished T41 here last year, but put together a T3 and T8 in his two previous starts at PGA National. Henley has a true strokes gained of 1.44 on this course, per Data Golf, and has strong finishes at majors over the last two years. Please, Russell. We need you, buddy.
Who is missing the cut?
Mar 8, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Min Woo Lee hits his drive on the tenth tee during the second round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Min Woo Lee (+180) 1 Unit
I’m ignoring Lee’s T2 at the Cognizant last year and focusing on his current form, which features a 48th-place finish at the Genesis and a rather awkward course fit at PGA National.
Jordan Spieth (+140) 1 Unit
Speaking of bad course fits, Spieth has negative strokes gained in four of the five key indicators this week. He’s likely here to work some bugs out of his game after missing the cut at the Genesis, but that seems like a tall ask at an event Spieth has never entered before.
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