There is a joke doing the rounds in No 10 Downing Street that the UK should reconsider changing the name of the English Channel to the French Channel.
By doing so, the gag goes, the US would be flattered after Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally dub the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. It would also have the advantage of pleasing the French, as the UK is torn between its Atlantic and European neighbours.
Sir Keir Starmer headed across La Manche – “the sleeve” as the French more neutrally call the English Channel – to his first reset meeting with the European Union on Monday, the first British leader to be offered dinner with the council since Brexit.
The Prime Minister crossed the world’s busiest shipping lane with the words of US President Donald Trump ringing in his ears, confirming tariffs with the EU but only saying the UK “might” be similarly affected.
Trump also said that Starmer is “very nice” – expect the Prime Minister to pop up in the Oval Office in Washington DC in February, as the current love-in continues.
According to UK sources, a lot of work is going on behind the scenes to persuade Trump’s team of the “balance” between the two nations as mutual employers and trading partners.
But there is also some confusion over which numbers the pair are using because, while the Office for National Statistics says the UK ran a trade surplus with the US of £71.4bn, or around $89bn, in 2023, according to US statistics, they ran an overall trade surplus with the UK in 2023, at $14.5bn (£11.7bn).
If there is an obvious pull between the US, the UK and the EU, there is another complicating factor: the UK’s relationship with China. As The i Paper reported on Friday, a likely decision to exempt Beijing’s spies from the toughest restrictions of the UK’s new counter-espionage laws is part of an effort to rekindle relations. But the UK’s compromise is likely to dismay the White House.
Meanwhile, ahead of Starmer travelling to the Brussels summit, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to portray the reset meeting as a failure of the Brexit project. Reviving his role as EU bad cop, Macron tried to present Starmer coming cap-in-hand for closer relations with the bloc. The reality is rather different: Macron himself has gone above and beyond to woo Starmer.
Ahead of Starmer taking office last year, Brussels had held expectations for a closer and faster reset of relations, leaving behind the psychodrama and posturing of the Conservative years. In public briefing and private negotiations, the EU has tried to prod the UK Government into closer ties, only for London to rebuff sallies on the single market, customs union and a youth mobility programme.
But in Brussels’ diplomatic circles, optimism turned to frustration, then to shrugs of resignation, and now a watching brief as they wait again for the Brits to make up their minds as to where the compromises will come.
For all Starmer and his team try to present a defence treaty and the future of Ukraine’s security as common ground – and they are – there are all sorts of matters the EU would rather talk about at the same time.
Any UK-proposed defence pact will be explicitly packaged together with EU demands for guaranteed access to Britain’s fishing waters after 2026 and free movement for youngsters. The premier appeared to acknowledge this when he said in advance of Monday’s dinner that the group would also touch on trade and the economy.
The UK has a plan to avoid worst of Trump's tariffs - but can't escape unscathed
Read MoreMeanwhile, with the money markets absorbing the impact of Trump’s announcement to impose international tariffs, the world’s blond disruptor-in-chief was dominating the conversation in Brussels and back home in London.
The central question diplomats are asking is whether Britain will remain neutral in a trade war between the US and the EU.
Furthermore, could Starmer be the one to make good on the benefits of Brexit? Could the UK trade with both the EU and US? Peter Mandelson, who starts this week as the UK’s ambassador to Washington, has talked of a “have your cake and eat it” strategy.
As if to make the point, at a news conference between Starmer and Nato Chief Mark Rutte, ostensibly to talk about European defence, the pull between Europe and the US was on everyone’s mind. Starmer talked up defence co-operation over Russia and the US’s contribution to Ukraine’s defences. But eventually he will need to pick a side.
“We are not choosing between them,” Starmer told reporters in Brussels. “In relation to the US and the EU or Europe more generally, if you look at our vital interests, it’s important that we work with both, and we don’t see it as an either/ or.”
What was on display was cakeism writ large. A massive sponge number with pink icing. How long Starmer can keep this up is the balancing act of his career. In the meantime the English Channel keeps its name.
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