Relative Spending Levels, Extension Hopes, Trades This Week, and Other Cubs Bullets ...Middle East

Tweaked my back a bit this weekend, which I’m going to chalk up to all the shoveling, rather than any kind of setback with last year’s surgical area. Could’ve happened to anyone at any time, and doesn’t necessarily have to be a scary warning signal. Just need to take very good care of it for a few days now, especially with CubsCon looming …

We know that the Cubs’ current payroll is way, way down from last season. But, to put it in context, the only larger percentage drops than the Cubs (as of this moment) belong to the White Sox and Marlins:

Here's IMO a much more accurate look at YoY payroll changes — this is real money paid in (or allocated to, in the case of deferrals that are paid out later) each season, NOT CBT calculations. Money left to be spent to equal last year but not many hundreds of millions: pic.twitter.com/QJ6bYFZer0

— Jon Becker (@jonbecker_) January 12, 2025 The point is not to dump on the Cubs (yet) for not spending, but it is very much to note that if the Cubs were done spending today, then they would’ve massively shrunk payroll. Even a number of complementary additions from here – there are several necessary ones! – are still likely to come up well short of last year’s number. All that said, while I am increasingly down on the idea that the Cubs are going to add a significant salary deal from here, I do think they will AT LEAST add an impact reliever and a high-quality bench bat. Together, that will probably add a decent chunk to the payroll. With that in mind, I share Matt Trueblood’s deeply optimistic take on a POSSIBLE reason that the front office could intentionally underspend its own baseball budget for the time being. The short version is that, in addition to doing what we know they always do – leave room in the baseball budget for in-season additions (under the luxury tax) – the Cubs could also be leaving a little extra room for extensions (which necessarily raise the current year’s luxury tax AAV number for the extended player, even if he’s not actually getting a huge raise this year). For example, if the Cubs were to extend Justin Steele on a six-year, $96 million deal and have it kick in right away, that would make his 2025 salary for luxury tax purposes, based on AAV, $16 million. That is a SUBSTANTIAL bump on his actual $6.55 million salary, avoiding arbitration. That $10 million difference – even if the Cubs aren’t actually paying it out in 2025 – would go on the 2025 payroll books for purposes of the luxury tax. It’d be as if the Cubs just spent another $10 million this offseason, and that would have to be accounted for – thus, the Cubs stay way under their budget for now. It’s a great theory and tracks on paper, though I tend to think it’s optimistic to believe any of those extensions will get done, or that the Cubs wouldn’t just have the extension kick in after the 2025 season anyway (so that the 2025 luxury tax number is unaffected). Still, I appreciate someone thinking of another positive theory for the Cubs’ seemingly belt-tightened offseason. If you missed it earlier, the Cubs DFA’d relief prospect Michael Arias to make room on the 40-man for Colin Rea, which was more than a bit surprising. It makes me wonder if the Cubs already have a trade lined up involving Arias. Like I said, the dream is that it’s for IFA bonus pool funds (available to be traded starting Wednesday, when the signing period opens). I say that less because of a hope for Roki Sasaki, and more just that it’s a good time to have extra funds: lots of prospects could be in limbo right now – including ones who’ve been locked into an under-market agreement for years, but who’ve since blown up – and it’d be great to be able to add a couple extra high-quality prospects in the class. In general, you can expect some IFA craziness this week, including more bonus pool space trades than we’re used to seeing (and teams are going to get a little more than usual for their bonus pool space – for example, the caliber of legit interesting relief prospects like Michael Arias). I was NOT joking yesterday when I said the Cubs need to sign the hard-throwing knuckleballer from the Tread pro day, but let me add that his name is Kenny Serwa, he’s FROM CHICAGO, his X profile has a CUBS header photo, and he pitched just this past season for the CHICAGO DOGS. You absolutely MUST sign this guy, Cubs:

Uncatchable Knuckleballs! ?Kenny Serwa's uncatchable knuckleballs (up to 88.5mph). @KennySerwa Thanks to @TreadAthletics for the clips. pic.twitter.com/vPtElWG2NR

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) January 13, 2025 Big sale at Fanatics today:

HEADS UP – Fanatics must be looking to clear out some inventory. Big sale if you use the code WINTRY: fanatics.93n6tx.net/9WO47W #ad

— Bleacher Nation (@bleachernation.bsky.social) 2025-01-13T15:03:15.985Z I did indeed enjoy it:

Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. Please enjoy Christian Moore hitting an absolute nuke off Tr*vor Bau*r. ? pic.twitter.com/U3rjSw8cP5

— Rocket City Trash Pandas (@trashpandas) January 12, 2025

MORE FROM BLEACHER NATION: Check Out BN Fantasy | Subscribe to The BN Newsletter

Monday #Blackhawks Bullets:? Seth needs to be better ⭐️ ⁦@TheAHL⁩ All-Stars heading to Rockford ? what’s up with the ⁦@goicehogs⁩ roster??? MORE! t.co/oRG34m3l7P

— Bleacher Nation Blackhawks (@BN_Blackhawks) January 13, 2025

I've profiled 12 of 18 known Bears HC candidates. My updated rankings drop tomorrow morning at @BN_Bears with background, fit, and one big question for each candidate. Here’s my top 5: 1. Ben Johnson2. Todd Monken3. Joe Brady4. Pete Carroll5. Drew Petzing pic.twitter.com/Ygsxwrx3HD

— Patrick K. Flowers (@PatrickKFlowers) January 13, 2025

DeMar DeRozan Gets Tribute Video, Standing Ovation in Return to United Center (WATCH) t.co/ekKa7U3tsH

— Bleacher Nation Bulls (@BN_Bulls) January 12, 2025

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