Ground Control: The Bears’ Plan for the NFL’s Hottest Running Game ...Middle East

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Last Sunday in Tampa, in a steady rain, Baker Mayfield attempted three passes and completed none of them. He handed the ball off 52 times.

The Buccaneers still won 16-0. Bucky Irving ran for 170 yards, and Kenny Gainwell added 140, and Tampa finished with 324 rushing yards, a franchise record. No NFL team had gone a full game without a completion since the 1974 Bills. Todd Bowles summed it up afterward by saying there’s a first time for everything.

Weather made that game unusual, but Tampa’s running game is no fluke. Ben Johnson pointed out this week that the Bucs have averaged around 230 rushing yards over their last four games, and they’ve won three.

“They’ve got the horses to do that now,” Johnson said. “I mean, I’m telling you, this offensive line is really good. The scheme is really good. They have a lot of variety with which they do things. Then the backs are phenomenal as well. It’s a potent, potent rushing attack.”

That attack comes to Soldier Field on Sunday night. The Bears are 6-2, haven’t lost since Caleb Williams returned from his hamstring injury, and are one win away from a 4-0 primetime record and a 7-2 mark heading into the bye.

Nov 2, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) passes the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The Bears Have Seen This Before

The Bears faced a similar test three weeks ago in Atlanta. Bijan Robinson came in as an MVP candidate behind one of the league’s best running games. The Bears were missing Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, and T.J. Edwards.

Robinson finished with nine carries, a season low.

Chicago scored touchdowns on its first two possessions, went up 14-0, and never let the Falcons play the game they wanted. Kyler Gordon got home twice off the edge, backups made plays on screens, and the Bears won 31-23.

That approach has held up. Since Williams returned, the Bears have led for 158 minutes and 33 seconds of a possible 180. They’ve never trailed. Teams built to run 40 times a game don’t get to do that when they’re chasing points in the second quarter.

Williams said the early drives have set the tone.

“We knew last week they’re not a defense that typically, over their time, allows explosive plays and a first-score drive,” Williams said. “I think that was big for us to be able to come out and have a certain energy whenever we got the ball, whether it was the first drive or after them.”

Getting ahead early matters even more this week. It’s harder to hand off 52 times when you’re down two scores.

Oct 18, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) is tackled by Chicago Bears linebacker D’Marco Jackson (48) during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Jeffery Simmons Effect

The Bears have another advantage this time. When they slowed Robinson, they were shorthanded. Sunday will be the first time Tampa’s line sees the full defense, with Jeffery Simmons in the middle of it.

His debut in Seattle went about as well as anyone could have hoped: a sack, two tackles for loss, a pass breakup, and a steady stream of double-teams that freed up his teammates. Johnson knows what it’s like to game plan against a player like that, and Sunday he’ll be on the other end of it.

“How do we minimize that individual’s impact on the game the best that we can?” Johnson said. “And sometimes those plans work, other times they don’t. … I think those guys are rare. I think Jeffery’s one of those guys, and we’re very fortunate to have him.”

What Simmons brings goes beyond the box score. Williams shared a story from Monday night. Before Simmons arrived, Williams had asked his teammates to take care of the locker room after games and clean up after themselves. Simmons wasn’t there for that talk. After the win in Seattle, he was one of the first to start cleaning anyway.

“He’s an all-pro guy; he’s a this and that. I mean, he could walk out, and nobody say anything; nobody would pay any mind,” Williams said. “And he’s cleaning up the whole locker room, offense and defensive side. That’s who he is.”

Against a team that wants to beat you with the same handful of runs, the defensive tackle has to win his matchup early and keep winning it all night. Tampa’s backs don’t need much space to get going, and Simmons will have to take it away.

Nov 2, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Chicago Bears defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (99) is blocked by Seattle Seahawks center Jalen Sundell (61) during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The Other Side of the Ball

The Bears’ own running game has been harder to watch. Without Kyle Monangai, Chicago’s rushing numbers have dropped sharply over the last month. D’Andre Swift has turned short runs into touchdowns, but the yards have been hard to come by.

Tampa has its own difference-maker inside in Vita Vea, and Johnson brought him up as the player he has to plan around this week. The Bears will also be without Braxton Jones for the rest of the season after his knee surgery, which leaves the offensive line with less depth than it’s had all year.

Williams credited Tampa’s defense as the biggest reason for its turnaround.

“They’re playing well on defense, they’re flying around,” he said.

If the Bears can’t run consistently, they’ll go back to what has worked: Williams spreading the ball around, Johnson finding something the defense isn’t expecting, and the offense scoring early. Williams has 10 touchdowns and one interception in primetime games under Johnson, and these settings haven’t bothered him yet.

What’s On the Line

A win sends the Bears into the bye at 7-2 after Williams missed three games, with a perfect primetime record and a defense that’s starting to look like the one Ryan Poles paid for. The trade deadline is Tuesday, so it would also give Poles another week of evidence to decide how much further he wants to push.

Tampa’s plan won’t be complicated. The Bucs want to line up and run the ball. The Bears’ best answer is the one that’s worked for three weeks: score first and make Tampa throw.

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