Week 9 starts Thursday night in Baltimore and ends Monday night in Minneapolis, and in between there is a game in Madrid, a Bears home game on Sunday night, and four teams laying close to double digits. The NFL Week 9 odds have moved a lot since they reopened Sunday night, mostly because of quarterback news. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye, so 15 games are on the board.
Here is a look at the biggest spreads, the matchups worth your attention, the lines that have moved, and three picks.
Biggest Spreads of NFL Week 9
Four games have a favorite of 9.5 points or more. That is a lot for one week, and it is worth knowing why each one is so big.
Seahawks -11.5 to -13 vs Cardinals. Arizona (3-5) is starting Gardner Minshew, and Jeremiyah Love just went on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. Seattle is 4-4. Circa has the high number at -13, while FanDuel and BookMaker are at -11.5. Jaguars -9.5 to -10 at Ravens. Yes, the road team. Baltimore (4-4) is without Lamar Jackson, who is on injured reserve, and Tyler Huntley is out with turf toe. Joe Fagnano starts Thursday. Jacksonville is 5-2. Chiefs -9.5 to -10 vs Jets. Kansas City (5-2) hosts a Jets team that is 2-6. 49ers -9.5 to -10 vs Raiders. San Francisco is 6-1, tied for the best record in the league, and hosts a 4-4 Las Vegas team.The Jaguars at Ravens line is the one to stare at. This game opened with Baltimore favored on the lookahead line, flipped to Jacksonville after the Ravens’ quarterback news, and has kept climbing. The total has dropped too, from 43.5 on the Sunday night reopen to 40 or 40.5 now. When a line moves this far, the market is telling you it does not trust the Baltimore offense with a backup under center.
Best Matchups of the Week
Buccaneers at Bears, Sunday Night Football
This is the one Chicago cares about. The Bears are 6-2 and are favored by 6 to 6.5 points over a Tampa Bay team that is 3-5. The total is 47 to 47.5, up a point from where it reopened. Chicago’s moneyline is in the -277 to -290 range.
The Bears are a real team this year, and the market has caught up. Not long ago, Chicago laying 6.5 in prime time would have felt like a trap. Now it feels about right. Keep an eye on Grady Jarrett, who has a groin injury and no update yet this week. Tampa Bay is without pass rusher Yaya Diaby.
Nov 2, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) passes the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn ImagesBills at Vikings, Monday Night Football
Buffalo (6-1) at Minnesota (6-1) is the best game on paper. The Bills are favored by 3 to 3.5, and the total is 45.5 to 46.5. Two big questions hang over it. Kyler Murray has a sore hamstring, and Kevin O’Connell said Minnesota is not there yet on his availability. Buffalo also released C.J. Gardner-Johnson on Tuesday, so Damar Hamlin moves back in at safety.
If Murray is ruled out, expect this line to move toward Buffalo. If you like Minnesota, you are betting that he plays, and that is a real risk right now.
Packers at Patriots
Green Bay (5-3) at New England (5-3) is a quietly great game in the late afternoon window. The Patriots are favored by 3, and the total is 46.5 to 47. New England is waiting on A.J. Brown, who might return, and Hunter Henry, who has a foot injury. Micah Parsons is practicing for Green Bay but is not expected to play for a few more weeks.
Bengals vs Falcons in Madrid
The early game Sunday is in Madrid, a neutral site. Cincinnati (5-2) is favored by 3 to 3.5 over Atlanta (3-5), and the total is the highest on the board at 52.5 to 53. The total has gone up since it reopened at 51. Atlanta just put Samson Ebukam on injured reserve.
May 10, 2024; Flowery Branch, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr (9) passes the ball during Rookie Minicamp at the Falcons Training Camp. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY SportsLine Movement Worth Knowing
A few games have moved enough that you should know where they started.
Browns at Saints. New Orleans reopened around -2.5 to -3 and is now -1 to -1.5. The Saints also released kicker Daniel Carlson this week. Texans at Chargers. Houston (2-5) reopened around -3.5 and is now -4.5 on the road against a Chargers team that is 0-7. The total has dropped from about 42.5 to 40.5 or 41. Cowboys at Colts. Dallas (3-5) is now -5.5 to -6.5 at Indianapolis. The Colts (2-6) lost 42-7 at Jacksonville last week, and Daniel Jones was benched late in that game. Shane Steichen says Jones is still the starter. Giants at Eagles. The Giants (4-2-1) are a road favorite of 3 to 3.5 at Philadelphia (2-6). Tanner McKee is still the Eagles’ starter.Rams at Commanders is also worth a look. The Rams are favored by 5.5, but Washington just lost both starting defensive tackles, Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw, to injured reserve. That is a big hit for a defense that has to slow down the Rams’ run game.
NFL Week 9 Picks
Three plays for the week. One with my hometown team, one with a big number, and one total.
Bears -6 vs Buccaneers
I will take Chicago at -6 rather than -6.5, and the -6 is out there at DraftKings, Circa, and BookMaker. The Bears have been the better team all season, they are at home in prime time, and Tampa Bay is missing a key pass rusher. At 3-5, the Buccaneers have not given anyone a reason to think they can go on the road and win a game like this. If you can only find -6.5, I still like it, but shop first.
Ravens +10 vs Jaguars
This is the contrarian play. Ten points is a big number in a game with a total of 40 or 40.5. Low totals mean fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make it harder for a favorite to win by double digits. Baltimore also got good news on defense this week, with Roquan Smith and Trey Hendrickson both practicing fully on Tuesday.
Is Fagnano going to light it up? Probably not. But the Ravens do not need him to. They need to keep it close and let the defense do the work. I would take +10 at DraftKings, Circa, Pinnacle, or BookMaker over the +9.5 at FanDuel.
Packers at Patriots Under 47
Two good teams, a lot of injury questions on offense, and a total that has already slipped since it reopened at 47 to 47.5. I like the under at 47, which is available at Circa and BookMaker. If A.J. Brown gets ruled out, this number probably drops more, so getting it early is the play.
Jan 25, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) drops back to pass against the Denver Broncos during the first half in the 2026 AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn ImagesFrequently Asked Questions
Who is the biggest favorite in NFL Week 9?
The Seahawks are the biggest favorite of Week 9. Seattle is favored by 11.5 to 13 points over Arizona, depending on the sportsbook.
What is the Bears spread for Week 9?
The Bears are favored by 6 to 6.5 points over the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. The total is 47 to 47.5.
Why are the Jaguars favored by 10 at Baltimore?
Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve and Tyler Huntley is out with turf toe, so Joe Fagnano is starting at quarterback for the Ravens on Thursday night. The line has moved several points toward Jacksonville since it reopened.
Which teams are on bye in Week 9?
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans are on bye in Week 9.
What is the highest total of NFL Week 9?
Bengals vs Falcons in Madrid and Raiders at 49ers share the top spot. Both sit at 52.5 at most books, and Pinnacle has the Madrid game at 53.
Responsible Gambling
A full NFL week gives you 15 games and a lot of temptation to bet all of them. You do not need to. The best bettors pass on most games and only play the spots where they have a real opinion.
Set your bankroll before the season, and keep each bet to a small, steady piece of it. That way one bad Sunday does not turn into a bad month. Decide your limits before kickoff, not after a tough loss on Thursday night.
Use the tools your sportsbook offers, including deposit limits, wager limits, and time-outs. Betting should be entertainment. If it starts to feel like something else, take a break and reach out for help. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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