Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
We think it’s not a coincidence that this is happening even as we’re now seeing early voting data emerge, and it really doesn’t look good for Republicans. In fact, we’re seeing a number of MAGA data analysts who are warning of a bad election based on this right now.
Simon Rosenberg: Greg, it’s always a pleasure.
“The Republicans’ worst senator by far is Lisa Murkowski of the great state of Alaska. The Democrats are trying to steal this important Republican seat, and if that happens, everything we’ve done for Alaska will come to an immediate halt!”
Rosenberg: Yeah, look, he’s had a really bad few weeks. You know, the inflation reports were terrible. The jobs report was terrible. Brent crude is up at $115 a barrel today, right? The Middle East war is getting worse. I mean, nothing has gone right for him in these final few weeks before the election.
Sargent: Well, Trump also had this insane tweet where he said this: “Anybody reporting voter fraud in the past elections or the upcoming 2026 midterm election will be paid one million dollars upon the arrest and conviction of those that created the fraud!”
Rosenberg: Yeah. I mean, look, and his performance on the stump has been erratic. He looks terrible. I mean, he’s bloated, and even the makeup is not helping him. The MAGAs just got their butts kicked in Serbia and Brazil.
It feels like they’re closing with chaos instead of with strength. And you’re starting to see it in how they’re approaching the final ad spend in the race, and also what they’re doing with his time. I think they are in a form of panic now.
One of these people is Jennica Pounds, who’s a big MAGA account that goes under the name Data Republican. She posted this: “I’ve been asked about early voting analysis. The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough that being too blunt can affect morale.”
Simon, there you have it. If she puts up the actual early voting data, it’ll depress morale too much on the right. Your thoughts on that?
And so I think that the Texas numbers have been a collective shock for them, you know, for all of the sort of right-wing data people. And also the North Carolina and Georgia numbers. As we get more early in-person voting in, they’re getting more pessimistic.
Rosenberg: Well, we’re over 40 now, Greg. So most of the country is now in some form of early voting. And tens of millions of people have voted, and tens of millions more will vote between now and Election Day.
Rosenberg: So in the latest TargetEarly data today, 27 million have voted, which is about four million more than had voted at this point four years ago. So turnout is up, which is a sign of intensity, which is a good sign for us.
Rosenberg: Yeah, and 39 percent Republican. So this is a good number, and we should be happy with that number, in part because we’ve seen turnout come up so much since 2022.
Rosenberg: At this point it was 47-44. So we only had a three-point lead. And this time, as you were saying earlier, we have a 14-point lead. So we’re doing about 11 points better than we were at this time in 2024.
Rosenberg: Yep. Greg, the most significant data we have in the early vote so far, the stuff that means the most, I think, about where this election is going, is that we’ve seen a big surge compared to 2022 among the voters in our coalition. So Black voters are voting at a rate 10 percent higher. Eighteen-to-29-year-olds are up 25 percent compared to this point in 2022, and Hispanic-Latino voters are up 41 percent.
So not only are they voting in much larger numbers, they’re going to vote much more Democratic. And so this is a very encouraging sign about what’s going to happen all across the country in the election in 2026.
Rosenberg: You’re seeing a really incredible surge of Hispanic voters, and it’s everywhere. I mean, it’s not just in Texas and California. It’s in every state that we have data.
So what all that means is that this is a universal trend. It’s not surprising, frankly, given how Trump and Stephen Miller have disproportionately targeted Hispanic families and families in Hispanic communities, his dismal treatment of people in Latin America during his time, and his desire to become viceroy of Latin America.
Sargent: That’s really fascinating, the treatment of Latin America being a big contributor to this. And I think that will be a big narrative coming out of this as well.
Rich Baris (voiceover): The Black vote share, and increasingly Hispanic too in North Carolina, is typically not this much of the early vote. And I love this about the southern states, because we have a larger group of subgroups, you know, including Black and Hispanic voters. We’re looking at potentially a pretty low white vote share. We do expect that to get more Republican as time goes on, but Republicans are running significantly behind where they are. And a big part of that is not only that Black vote share is almost double what it has been in the past as of right now, but—this is where Republicans really need to step it up.
Simon, it does look like the declining white share of the early vote is an important story, doesn’t it?
And so I do think that the electorate is younger. There are far more people of color in it than in 2022. This is all very encouraging stuff. But yes, what we would have wanted, and what would have been righteous and just, would have been for voters of color to have turned out in large numbers as a way of punishing Trump for his rancid white supremacy. And we may be seeing that play out now all across the country.
This person pointed out that Trump is not a good closer and should have just stayed in the White House. So this MAGA data guy, Mark Mitchell, said this in response: “Good pollsters knew this would happen instinctually. Guess none of the highly paid ones had the balls to tell Trump.” Close quote.
Rosenberg: I have a slightly different take. I think they did tell him. I think that in his vainglory and his arrogance and his addled state, he just always believed that judgment would not come. The reckoning would not come. They would spend their way out of it. Democrats are weak and pathetic, that he couldn’t lose to Schumer and Jeffries.
And he’s now closing out the election campaigning and spending money in places like South Carolina and Mississippi, you know, and the House battlefield continues to erode. And because, Greg, what happens in a wave election like this is that it’s almost inevitable that the party in power sees the election turn against them by a few points at the end. And that’s exactly what’s happening.
Sargent: It absolutely is remarkable, the leaking about Trump at this point and the level of rage among Republicans at Donald Trump right now. But on the other hand, screw you, Republicans. You brought this on yourselves, right?
OK, so Democrats are, you know, in the polling average, they’re maybe a point or two up in every one of these races. Like, if you had told me six months ago that that was going to happen, I wouldn’t have believed it. And it’s pretty amazing that they’re up a point or two in races like the one in Texas, the one in Ohio, the one in Alaska.
Rosenberg: No, I don’t think it’s throwing cold water. I think it’s reality. I think that these are all very close races. You know, they’re in very hard places for us to win. Many of these states, we have no recent history of performing well.
So I think you’re not throwing cold water. You’re giving an accurate picture. Final point, Greg, is that what you’re getting at is the reality that we are being outspent in these Senate races by astronomical numbers, unprecedented numbers. There’s just a worry that we don’t really know what will happen because of that, because we’ve never actually gone through an election like this.
But I just interviewed Adam Hamilton today. The early vote in Kansas is through the roof for us. He told us today that he was at an event in Pratt, in a red part of Kansas. A group of farmers came up to him and complained about the tariffs and the fertilizer costs. He said this state is going to go blue.
Sargent: You mentioned this in passing, so I just want to highlight it before we say goodbye. Donald Trump later this week is campaigning in, yep, South Carolina. And that sure says something about where they think the election is.
And so we should take that to heart, but we can’t take our—you know, we’ve got to keep our pedal to the metal and run through the tape, close strong, all those, you know, things. Because as my friend Anderson Clayton said, elections may be decided in November, but they’re won in October. And we just have to do everything we can now to close strong and run up the score and win this thing next week.
Rosenberg: Thanks, Greg. Always fun.
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