Republicans are still projected to win the Sunshine State, but by a much smaller margin: Early voting results out of Florida revealed a massive Democratic shift compared to the last election cycle.
That pattern remained true through the second day of early voting, as well. At the same point in the race in 2024, Republicans held a 26.1 percent advantage. On Tuesday, they were ahead by just 2.4 percent, a 23.8 percent shift, according to data shared by VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini.
So far, more than 1,061,000 ballots have been cast across Florida. Roughly 6.1 million remain.
A spate of election-bound MAGA personalities have already broken from Trump and his agenda in an attempt to curry favor with their local electorates. The growing list includes Florida Representatives Maria Elvira Salazar and Byron Donalds (the latter of whom is running for Florida governor), Maine Republican gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles, and Texas Republican congressional candidate Carlos De La Cruz.
Top issues weighing down Trump’s popularity include the seemingly endless Iran war, the rising cost of living, an economy and supply chain thrown out of whack by the president’s reckless tariffs, the cost of health care, and the encroachment of AI and the industry’s data centers into American communities—a hot topic that Trump has unequivocally backed.
Nonetheless, Trump has insisted that the midterms should once again be a referendum on his popularity—a detail that isn’t likely to help anyone currently on the campaign trail.
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