News flash: That didn’t happen. But Trump has good reason to pretend it did. Mahoning County, whose seat is Youngstown, has taken on immense significance for the political classes. Ever since Trump in 2016 began transforming the broader Mahoning Valley region into a GOP stronghold, Youngstown and Mahoning County have become a benchmark for reporters to interpret Trump’s inroads with the Midwestern working class. The constant media visits to Mahoning helped launch the meme of the “Trump diner safari.”
New internal data from Democrats helps explain this cautious optimism. Veteran Democratic pollster Margie Omero just did polling on Trump in the three counties that make up the broader Youngstown media market—Mahoning, Trumbull, and Columbiana counties. Omero found that Trump’s favorable rating in them is 11 points underwater, at 43-54. The poll, which came out of the field this week, was conducted for national Democrats, and it’s helping fuel their optimism.
The finding is striking. Trump won Mahoning, Trumbull, and Columbiana counties in 2024 by nine, 17, and 49 points respectively. The latter is not flippable for Democrats, but Mahoning definitely is (Trumbull might be, but only on a very good night). Trump being that underwater in the whole region is quite a surprise.
Indeed, Brown works particularly hard to appeal to the sort of blue-collar workers who are not culturally or ideologically wedded to MAGA—people who were previously Democrats and presumably could be again. As Brown recently told writer John Judis: “Democrats don’t talk to workers enough, and don’t listen to workers enough.”
By contrast, the GOP candidates are imperfect fits for the region. Husted is a cookie-cutter pro-corporate Republican who was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to the Senate seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Brown has savaged him for offering giveaways during his stint as Lieutenant Governor to facilitate data center construction, an attack that Republicans admit is landing. And while GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramasawamy grew up in Cincinnati, he’s a biotech financier—not a popular profession these days in working- class Ohio.
Marty Loney, a senior official with two union locals in the Mahoning Valley region—one representing construction workers, the other plumbers and pipefitters—estimates that around half the members in both locals backed Trump in the past. Trump’s inroads among unionized workers aided his success in the Rust Belt, but Loney says he’s seen serious erosion in these workers’ support for Trump since.
Mahoning’s broader trajectory tells a big part of the story of Trump-era America writ large. Barack Obama won Mahoning County by 28 points in 2012, yet Trump erased that advantage entirely in 2016, pulling even with Hillary Clinton there, then narrowly winning it in 2020 and winning it lopsidedly in 2024. That jarring swing helped turn Mahoning into a journalistic archetype of the Obama-Trump county—a lens through which to understand blue-collar abandonment of Democrats in the Rust Belt.
It’s fitting, then, that Mahoning County is where Trump went in 2017 and shouted to a crowd, “Don’t sell your houses,” because he’d bring manufacturing roaring back. It’s also where General Motors closed its Lordstown plant in 2019, devastating many residents. That didn’t stop Trump from winning there in 2020 and 2024, but the broken promises finally appear poised to catch up with him, even in this epicenter of Trumpian success in the industrial Midwest.
Mahoning County has long been lionized as the locus point of Trump’s successful exploitation of angst over deindustrialization. Yet Mahoning is also a place where his promises imploded with unusual force, revealing Trumponomics to be a hollow scam. And so, if the region votes accordingly in two weeks, it will become a fitting coda to that very big story—a journalistic touchstone for the sunsetting of Trumpism itself.
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