There’s no bigger option decision this year than Bo Bichette’s. The two-time All-Star went short on his deal with the Mets, locking in a monster $42MM average annual value on a three-year term. The deal allowed him to retest free agency after either of the first two seasons.
Bichette collected a $40MM signing bonus upfront and made $2MM in salary. The deal includes $42MM salaries for both 2027 and ’28. If Bichette opts out, he receives a $5MM buyout — though that would be deferred and paid in $1MM installments between 2036-40 (link via Mike Fitzpatrick of The Associated Press). It’s technically a two-year, $79MM decision, though the value of the buyout is reduced somewhat by the deferral.
Generally speaking, a player’s performance in the preceding season is the biggest factor in whether they exercise an opt-out. Bichette’s first year in Queens was a disappointment. He had a league average .260/.312/.390 slash line with 18 home runs across 696 plate appearances.
Public metrics were split on his first season at third base. Statcast graded him as a scratch defender; Defensive Runs Saved had him at eight runs below par, the sixth-worst mark at the position. Bichette made the routine plays — only Manny Machado and Alex Bregman had a higher fielding percentage among those with 500+ innings — but isn’t the rangiest defender and has a fringy arm for the left side of the infield.
FanGraphs valued Bichette’s season around two wins above replacement. Baseball Reference had him closer to one WAR. (The discrepancy comes mostly because the sites prioritize different defensive metrics.) In either case, Bichette performed like an average regular at best. That makes it a stretch that he’d walk away from the sixth-highest AAV in league history.
That said, Bichette wasn’t ready to tip his hand in the waning weeks of the regular season. He said in mid-September that he’d “make (the opt-out) decision when it comes” (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic). Maybe he simply didn’t feel it was right to say anything publicly while the season was ongoing, even if the Mets were long since out of contention. Still, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote around the same time that it was a legitimate borderline call.
The case for opting out hinges mostly on the manner in which Bichette’s season played out. He started terribly, hitting .219/.275/.308 through the end of May. After June 1, he batted .284/.333/.439 in his final 438 plate appearances.
Bichette was 14 percentage points better than average offensively, by measure of wRC+, over the final four months of the season. Although that’s still not what the Mets had in mind, it’s a lot closer to his career baseline than to the first two months. Every player looks better if you exclude his worst stretches, of course, but his camp could plausibly argue that he was pressing early in the season before settling in over the final two-thirds of the year.
This is also the worst class for free agent hitters in recent memory. Many of the top bats (e.g. Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Jake Bauers, Ty France) are corner players. There’s a solid second base group headlined by Brandon Lowe and Luis Arraez, but teams looking for left side infield help won’t have many options. Mauricio Dubón is probably the best available shortstop. The third base class is headlined by NPB slugger Teruaki Sato, who doesn’t have a strong defensive reputation, and drops precipitously to the likes of Alec Bohm and Luis Rengifo.
If Bichette were to opt out, he might command the biggest contract of any free agent hitter. The Phillies were reportedly willing to approach $200MM over seven years back in January. Bichette won’t turn 29 until March. A five- or six-year deal might still be on the table, and while it’d come with a significant drop in AAV, he’d handily beat the $79MM remaining on the Mets deal if he prioritized term and total guarantee this time around.
Arozarena, Suzuki, Lowe, Bauers and France are all into their early 30s. Sato will play next year at age 28 but has no track record against MLB pitching and similarly concerning strikeout rates in Japan as those that tanked Munetaka Murakami’s market last winter.
Perhaps the true x-factor is the second opt-out clause. Bichette could forego this out and bank another $42MM, hope for a better full season, and aim to retest the market at age 30. That’d be a tougher sell if he couldn’t opt out after next season and needed to wait until 31, when teams might really question his athleticism and overall longevity.
How does the MLBTR readership expect this to play out?
Will Bo Bichette Opt Out?
Yes No Vote Vote to see results No 76% (105) Yes 24% (34)Total votes: 139
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