Angie Nixon has defied expectations before. In the Democratic primary for Florida’s Senate race in August, her opponent Alex Vindman campaigned as though he was already running against Republican Senator Ashley Moody in the general election. Then Nixon beat Vindman by almost 12 points.
Some Democrats evidently agree. This Wednesday, Senator Chris Murphy will swing through Florida on a national tour to help Senate candidates. Murphy and Nixon will hold a town hall and go door-knocking together. Senator Bernie Sanders also plans to campaign with Nixon this Friday; he has also sent $250,000 to Nixon’s campaign. Nixon is running on a familiar progressive platform: universal health care, free childcare, and affordable housing.
Despite Nixon’s evident skills as a candidate, the raw numbers in Florida put her at a disadvantage. In the state, there are 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and many are older and therefore more likely to turn out and vote. Polls show Moody ahead of Nixon, though some are closer than others. As Jewett said, she would need the Democratic base to turn out in massive numbers, Republicans to stay home, and no party affiliation voters to swing blue. That’s no easy task, but President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the high cost of living have put Nixon in a stronger position than Democratic candidates before her. What’s more: As a Black woman, she could be well-positioned to energize both Black voters and women voters across the state.
While the Black vote would offer Nixon an important boost, she hasn’t been exclusively focusing on those voters, Austin explained. “She also is going to communities where people don’t vote for Democrats and typically don’t see Black candidates, don’t vote for Black candidates,” she said. “She’s reaching out to every voter.”
Both Nixon and the Democratic nominee for governor, David Jolly, have asked for more support from national Democratic groups, but they haven’t received it so far. On October 1, Nixon said that she spoke to Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, who run the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and hinted that more money could be coming. But so far, national Democrats have prioritized other races. “Florida Democrats have gotten spoiled, because when we were purple, the national money always flowed in here,” said Susan MacManus, a professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida. “And then suddenly it wasn’t, and it dried up.”
Though the cards are stacked against her, experts say that Nixon’s talents as a candidate and the national environment could—potentially—be enough for an upset. “She’s definitely a fighter,” McManus said. “There’s no question. She’s not backing off of anything.”
Outside Washington
A Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota poll released on Monday shows Democratic Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan with a small four-point lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota. Flanagan’s numbers, Walker Orenstein writes, derive from “huge margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, reflecting an electorate that is unhappy with President Donald Trump.” (Minneapolis lies in Hennepin County, while St. Paul is part of Ramsey County.) But—troublingly for Democrats, who need every seat they can get if they want to flip the Senate—the poll also “vindicates Tafoya’s belief that she is bucking national trends and locked in a tight race in left-leaning Minnesota. Republicans have a chance here,” Orenstein writes.
—Heather Souvaine Horn
On Tuesday at 1 p.m., the Bipartisan Policy Center will host an online conversation about the possible use of AI to speed home building, for example, via “zoning analysis, architectural design, jobsite monitoring, and procurement.” Could AI, in other words, help address the affordable housing crisis? Speakers will include Sara C. Bronin, Vikas Enti, Jenny Song, and Laura Hausman.
In Closing
Political Trivia Question of the Day
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—Michael Tomasky
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