All eyes will be on Anfield this Sunday when Liverpool host Manchester City in the Premier League. Leading into the game, we identify the key narratives to look out for.
Sunday’s clash between Liverpool and Manchester City is one of the most fascinating Premier League matches for years.
While there will be the usual intrigue of a heavyweight duel, the heat for this one has been dialled up by off-field matters that developed significantly during the international break.
On 29 September, the Premier League confirmed an independent commission found “Manchester City guilty of all charges related to serious breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules over a nine-season period, and the majority of charges in relation to its failure to co-operate with the league’s investigation”.
City deny the allegations and confirmed on 2 October they had lodged an appeal, with any potential sanctions still to be determined. Nevertheless, it was a seismic development and one that could have a monumental impact on English football.
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7 days ago Ali TweedaleSunday’s game will be City’s first outing since, and they can look forward to an especially vociferous welcome to Anfield.
Ahead of the match, we’ve identified several aspects that might gives clues as to which way the game goes – and there’s only one place to start…
Is There a Worse Possible Venue for City Right Now?
Given what happened during the international break, City would’ve been expecting a hostile reception wherever they were playing next. But if they could’ve picked any ground not to play their first match following the guilty verdicts, Anfield – if not Old Trafford – would probably be the one.
For starters, there are few top-flight grounds in England as hostile as Anfield when the home fans are in the mood. And you can guarantee they’ll be up for this one.
But on top of that, City, like so many others, have a dreadful record at Anfield even at the best of times.
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15 hours ago Ali TweedaleOf grounds they have played at more than once in the Premier League, they only have a worse points-per-game rate at Highbury (0.22) than they do at Anfield (0.59), and they have played more than three times as many games at the latter (29) as they have at Arsenal’s former home (nine).
In total, City have won only three of their 29 Premier League trips to Anfield, giving them one of their worst win rates (10.3%) at any stadium. They have also lost 18 of those games, equating to a 62.1% loss rate at Liverpool.
City did win there last season, coming from behind with two late goals to snatch a 2-1 win, but that came when Liverpool were in a particularly difficult moment that saw them manage one win in seven games, their title defence crumbling.
There was also a City win at Anfield in February 2021, though that was when games were played with no fans present due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That was their first win there in 18 visits.
Anfield is simply a very tough place to go. Even though Liverpool haven’t been the outright best side for much of the Premier League era, away sides still have a lower win percentage at Anfield (12.5%) than at any other stadium.
An uncomfortable day surely awaits City.
Can City’s Confidence From Perfect Start Trump Anfield Hostility?
City will at least be going into the match in decent form.
After five matches, City are top of the Premier League having won all their matches, including a 1-0 victory at Manchester United in the derby despite spending over an hour with 10 men.
However, it is a little difficult to know how much City’s start will count for because, well, these are uncharted waters. Firstly, we’ve just had an unprecedented three-week international break, and secondly, we’ve no idea to what degree the off-field matters will have distracted Enzo Maresca’s team.
City’s situation might stoke something of a siege mentality in the squad, or it might overwhelm them.
Either way, despite obviously making a good start to the season (on the pitch), City haven’t looked unbeatable and can certainly consider themselves fortunate to have 15 points.
Against United their goal shouldn’t have stood and they were spared by the woodwork twice; Coventry wasted three Opta-defined ‘big chances’ in the match that was ultimately settled by Erling Haaland’s close-range finish; and City needed a late turnaround at home to Bournemouth, scoring twice from the 84th minute onwards to win 2-1.
Some will also point to an insipid display against Arsenal in the Community Shield – though we aren’t entirely convinced a great deal should be read into that.
Nevertheless, this City side aren’t impenetrable even when they don’t have other things on their mind…
City Will Provide Chances
It might be a bit of an exaggeration to say City have looked “leaky” at the back this season, though we also can’t say they’ve been watertight.
Four goals conceded (five when you include own goals) from five games isn’t alarming, but it’s considerably lower than their 7.25 xG against.
When removing penalties from the equation for all clubs (City haven’t faced a spot-kick this term), their 7.25 xGA is only good enough to rank 11th in the Premier League.
What makes this particularly interesting is that, according to the Opta Power Rankings in pre-season, their start to the campaign was the second easiest across the first five matchdays. So, they’ve given up reasonably high-quality chances against some forgiving opposition.
Teams averaged 0.12 xG per shot against City across the first five games, with only four teams giving up higher-quality opportunities than that.
City have benefited from some questionable finishing on the part of their opponents, while they’ve also been spared by the woodwork more than any other team (5).
We also shouldn’t neglect Gianluigi Donnarumma’s impact.
According to Opta’s expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) model, his saves have prevented 2.6 goals this term, a figure only Newcastle’s Lukás Hornícek (3.2) can better.
It pays to have a great goalkeeper, but he can’t keep everything out. Liverpool will get chances; getting past Donnarumma is the main obstacle.
Isak Absence Gives City the Goalscoring Edge
Admittedly the build-up to this game has been dominated by a specific subject, but aside from that, one of the more notable talking points was seemingly set to be the battle between Scandinavian centre-forwards Cody Gakpo, who also returned from international duty with discomfort. All three of his assists in the Premier League this season have been for Isak, the most of player to one specific teammate.
Given Haaland has begun the season in typically sharp fashion, then, it’s fair to suggest City have a pretty significant advantage in the goalscoring stakes for this season. Liverpool were already without Hugo Ekitike for the long term, so their numbers in attack are depleted here.
Perhaps
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