The U.S.-Iran war has severely disrupted the flow of oil, with the national average of diesel now $6.06 a gallon according to the American Automobile Association, up from $5.85 last week, as renewed hostilities persist. By comparison, the national average this time last year was around $3.71.
Continued disruption of the Red Sea chokepoint would be “devastating to the global supply of energy,” says Shuting Pomerleau, director of energy and environmental policy at the American Action Forum. A surge in Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have also significantly impacted production, she adds, bringing daily exports of diesel fuel down significantly compared to last year and therefore pushing up global prices.
The surge in diesel prices has sparked fresh concerns. While only around 3% of passenger cars on American roads use diesel, it’s relied upon for heavy transport, construction, farming, and military vehicles. Around 75% of all diesel consumption in the U.S. came from the transportation sector in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Higher diesel prices undoubtedly make an impact at the pump. In California, the average price climbed to $7.98 on Friday, the highest average of any state in the country.
But with diesel a key component for several industries, American consumers can expect to experience steeper prices elsewhere too, experts say, and that’s on top of cost of living increases they’ve already experienced this year.
Diesel is integral to the food supply chain. Foods that require refrigeration and are transported long distances ahead of landing on the grocery store shelves are most likely to see price increases.
“The goods that need lots of refrigeration and are on long routes of transport that are perishable, so the vegetables, meat and dairy, those are more exposed to [diesel costs],” Bernhard Dalheimer, assistant professor in food economics at Purdue University, tells TIME.
A cost tracking system from Brown University's Watson School of International and Public Affairs has found an extra $789.75 per U.S. household has been spent on gasoline and diesel since the war began.
The increased costs will also likely impact farmers and their margins. Dalheimer describes farmers as “price takers” who have little influence in determining market prices.
“Farmers need to move all of their products from the farm to the grocery store shelves, so they have to pay for that extra cost, no matter how much that is,” adds Pomerleau, stressing that farmers still need to use diesel for agricultural machinery and transporting produce, regardless of fuel costs.
Steeper charges for shipping and mailing
“Not everyone drives on diesel, but everyone consumes on diesel,” says Pomerleau, pointing toward how integral the fuel is to shipping and transportation.
In March, the U.S. Postal Service sought a 8% charge on certain domestic products, citing increasing transportation costs, which came into effect in April up until January next year.
Homes that rely on heating oils
According to experts, households that use heating oils could also experience steeper prices.
"Heating oil and diesel are very similar,” says Pomerleau. "Winter's coming. Some regions in the United States, for example, New England. If you look at the state of Massachusetts and Maine, a lot of households do use heating oil to heat their houses in the winter, and heating oil also comes from crude."
“Last winter, residential heating-oil prices averaged about $3.98 a gallon. Retail heating-oil prices averaged about 1.02 times the retail diesel price over the same period,” reads the analysis. “With retail diesel now at $5.45 a gallon, that relationship suggests a current heating-oil price of about $5.55 a gallon. For a representative oil-heated household using 450 gallons during the winter, that would mean a heating bill of about $2,497.”
Remarking on how diesel is practically indistinguishable from home heating oil, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN: “Consumers who use heating oil for their home are going to have quite a sticker shock when they get the first delivery for the season."
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