Who will win the WSL? Which clubs will secure Champions League qualification? And who faces the biggest threat of relegation or a place in the relegation play-off? The Opta supercomputer answers the key questions ahead of the 2026-27 season.
The 2026-27 Women’s Super League season marks the start of a new era, with 14 clubs competing in the top flight for the first time.
Manchester City enter the campaign as reigning champions after ending Chelsea’s six-year dominance last season. In his first campaign in charge, Andrée Jeglertz guided City to their first WSL title in a decade, becoming just the third manager to win the competition in their debut season at the helm.
The league’s expansion to 14 teams has also brought significant structural change.
This season, the WSL 2 champion will be automatically promoted, with the WSL’s bottom side relegated. The team who finish 13th in the top flight will then face the WSL 2 runners-up in a play-off match.
Expansion to 14 teams also means each club will play 26 league matches, up from 22. So, the battles for the title, European qualification and survival are set to become even more demanding.
The summer transfer window has altered the competitive landscape as well, with some big names set to make their WSL debuts this season.
So, how will the season unfold? The Opta supercomputer has had its say after conducting 10,000 data-led simulations of the campaign – and here are its results.
Who Will Win the WSL?
Chelsea are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the 2026-27 WSL title, but this season’s race looks far less clear cut than it did 12 months ago, when they were also predicted to win.
In the supercomputer’s latest season simulations, the Blues lifted the trophy 39.9% of the time, ahead of reigning champions Manchester City (30.5%) and Arsenal (25.6%).
Nonetheless, if last season taught us anything, it’s that being the supercomputer’s favourites offers no guarantees.
Manchester City ended Chelsea’s six-year grip on the WSL title last season, becoming the first side since Arsenal in 2018-19 to finish above the Blues.
Indeed, before a ball was kicked, the supercomputer gave City just a 13.6% chance of lifting the trophy, compared with Chelsea’s 72.4%. Jeglertz’s side defied those expectations to lift the trophy, but going back-to-back will present a very different test.
Last term, City were able to focus on domestic competition without the demands of European football. This season, the UEFA Women’s Champions League returns to their schedule, bringing additional fixtures, travel and greater demands on the squad.
That burden will be partly offset by a change to the League Cup, with Champions League clubs no longer taking part in the domestic competition. Even so, balancing a European campaign with a title defence will require City to navigate a very different season.
There is plenty to suggest they are equipped to do so.
City were at their best when the stakes were highest last season, taking more points from matches between the eventual top four (12) than any other side and scoring 15 goals in those games, nine more than any of their rivals.
So what gives Chelsea the edge in the supercomputer’s projections?
Part of the answer lies in their remarkable consistency. Since 2015, Chelsea have won eight WSL titles and, prior to last season, had only once finished outside the top two (2018-19). On that occasion, they responded by winning the title the following campaign.
But this isn’t the Chelsea of those previous title-winning seasons.
In 2025-26, they scored their fewest WSL goals since 2017-18 and recorded their lowest win rate since 2018-19, while a summer of notable departures leaves Sonia Bompastor with a very different squad heading into 2026-27.
That makes their 39.9% probability interesting: the supercomputer still sees Chelsea as the strongest candidates to win the league, but far from the overwhelming favourites they were 12 months ago.
Arsenal are also very much in the hunt.
The Gunners are given a 25.6% chance of winning the title after finishing just four points behind champions Manchester City last season.
That represents an increase of 14.5 percentage points from their pre-season probability a year ago, reflecting the model’s growing belief that Renée Slegers’ side are genuine contenders to end their wait for a first WSL crown since 2018-19.
The underlying numbers suggest they were already close. Arsenal topped the league for expected points (49.7) in 2025-26, ahead of eventual champions Manchester City (47.3) and Chelsea (43.7), indicating their performances perhaps deserved more than the table ultimately showed.
Across 2025-26, the Gunners lost just one league game and spent a league-low 8% of game time trailing. Yet, six draws ultimately proved costly in a title race decided by fine margins.
When Arsenal went ahead, they were extremely difficult to stop, winning 93% of WSL matches in which they scored first, the highest rate in the division, while they dropped just two points from winning positions all season.
There were also signs they found another level as the season progressed.
Slegers’ side ended the campaign on a 17-match unbeaten league run (W13 D4), the longest active streak in the WSL and just two games short of the club’s competition record.
The challenge now is straightforward: convert more draws into wins. The Gunners have acted decisively to do just that in the transfer market.
Eleven players departed over the summer, while seven new faces arrived, including England star and double UEFA Euros winner Elisabeth Terland (16) scored more WSL goals than Malard’s 15, highlighting the attacking output United must now replace.
The Red Devils have also lost a wealth of experience elsewhere. Club-record goalscorer Alexia Putellas,
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