There’s no need to wait months to see who will be FBS conference champions. The predictions are right here, with our fearless forecaster matched against the TRACR prediction model.
Man versus machine is always fun.
TRACR (Team Ranking Adjusted for Conference and Roster) sees the 2026 FBS season going one way. I see it going slightly different, but I also think the projection model has the right idea of what’ll happen in a handful of conferences.
Let’s put the picks to the test in a rundown of TRACR’s projected top team in all 10 FBS conferences and my league champ picks as comparison points.
We’ll start in the Group of Six, then move into the Power Four with the FBS conference predictions.
USC coach Lincoln Riley is 35-18 through four seasons with the Trojans. Their program and Ohio State last met on Dec. 29, 2017.Conference USA: TRACR – Western Kentucky; Kirshner – Liberty
WKU is a reasonable pick by TRACR. The Hilltoppers are a plug-and-play transfer portal destination on offense, and Jyziah Rockwell, who had 1,161 receiving yards at Prairie View A&M last year, is the latest exciting arrival. This program has a great history with FCS and even Division II offensive transfers. (You may remember Jerreth Sterns catching passes from Bailey Zappe, followed by productive quarterback Austin Reed).
But TRACR has no way of understanding the likely sense of urgency at Liberty, which went 4–8 despite having more resources than just about any Conference USA peer. I expect coach Jamey Chadwell to lead a bounce-back season.
MAC: TRACR – Western Michigan; Kirshner – Miami (OH)
Miami has been a model program for surviving in the portal era. Every year, the Redhawks come up with a handful of new stars, most of whom get plucked in the winter by power conference teams. The next year, there are new stars.
I expect the cycle to repeat this year. Star edge rusher Adam Trick, for example, now plays at Texas Tech. But then here come the RedHawks, spending a reported $8-10 million on their roster to build the likely most-expensive MAC team ever. One player worth watching here is Monmouth transfer running back Rodney Nelson, who rushed for over 1,800 yards in the FCS last year.
Mountain West: TRACR – North Dakota State; Kirshner – UNLV
The 10-time FCS national champion Bison will take to the FBS nicely. They should win this conference plenty in the years to come, and I don’t even think the jump in Division I tiers is as difficult as it once was.
But UNLV has things nicely aligned this year under Dan Mullen, who will be coaching for a chance to get back to the power conferences. Running back Jai’Den Thomas will be the most prolific skills position player in the Mountain West, and the Runnin’ Rebels could wind up winning 10 games and putting seven or eight guys on the all-conference team.
Sun Belt: TRACR – James Madison; Kirshner – James Madison
The Sun Belt is a complete dartboard, and no team more so than James Madison.
The Dukes trying to win it is a test of whether a self-sustaining, plug-and-play Group of Six program is possible in this economy. The staff turned over, the roster was largely obliterated, and Billy Napier replaced Bob Chesney before signing 62 players, including 41 transfers. All we have to go on is that JMU pulled this off when it moved from Curt Cignetti to Chesney. I’ll take them because nobody else stands out.
Pac-12: TRACR – San Diego State; Kirshner – Boise State
This is TRACR’s biggest stunner. It takes San Diego State over heavily favored Boise State, the dominant team in the old Mountain West, which looks a lot like this Pac-12.
Boise’s running backs, Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley, would be great for a Big Ten or SEC program and are a huge deal here. Just as importantly, I’m not sure who else I’d pick here. I think I see where TRACR is going with the Aztecs as their offense may finally break out this year, but I’m afraid that will happen as its defense takes a step backward without its best player, who transferred to Texas Tech.
American: TRACR – USF; Kirshner – Army
I expect Brian Hartline will do well at USF, which has money behind it and says it will fully fund the $20 million-plus revenue-sharing pool under the House settlement. It helps that Tulane (Will Hall), Memphis (Charles Huff) and North Texas (Neal Brown) have new coaches. But if there is a vacuum here, a service academy is likeliest to benefit.
Navy is more highly touted, but I am bullish on Army’s running game with quarterback Cale Hellums and breakout tailback Godspower Nwawuihe. This feels like a year for a surprise Group of Six representative in the College Football Playoff, and I think Army’s run game can take it there. I don’t feel hugely confident in it, though, because of the lack of continuity all around this level. Someone will probably have a better team than Army or Navy, even if we can’t see from here who it’ll be.
Big 12: TRACR – Texas Tech; Kirshner – Texas Tech
The Red Raiders proved last year they don’t just throw money at the wall. They spend it wisely, and even though their priciest offseason investment flamed out spectacularly in the form of exiled quarterback Brendan Sorsby, I think they’ll again have the best team in the Big 12.
Tech likes to build outward from its lines, and it’s positioned to have the best defensive line in the conference. Miami (OH) transfer Adam Trick will pair with San Diego State transfer Trey White to form a nice edge-rushing tandem. Wake Forest transfer Mateen Ibirogba is one of a handful of studs in the defensive tackle rotation. I’m just not sure who in this league will be able to win a trench war with Tech, particularly at a time when Utah is replacing all five of its starting offensive linemen (plus their head coach and position coach).
ACC: TRACR – Miami (FL); Kirshner – Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes will see some falloff at edge rusher and offensive tackle, but they’re demonstrably loaded at every other position even after dismissing No. 3 wide receiver Cam Vaughn in fall camp.
We can never rule out that some weird Miami or ACC business will result in the ’Canes inexplicably not winning the league (they didn’t last year, after all), but this is the most-talented team in the ACC by such a wide margin that it would take multiple huge upsets for this not to be Miami’s year. Duke WR transfer Cooper Barkate will give Darian Mensah a better non-Malachi Toney receiving option than Carson Beck had last season.
SEC: TRACR – Georgia; Kirshner – Georgia
Georgia doesn’t have a star QB, but Gunner Stockton gets the job done in the same way most of Kirby Smart’s winning signal-callers have done it: by not messing things up for the defense with field-flipping turnovers.
Smart uses the portal less than most of his peers, which means Georgia will often shade to the younger side but have more year-to-year continuity than most. Off-ball linebacker CJ Allen did everything for the defense last season, and he plays in the NFL now. He was also the Bulldogs’ green-dot defender, responsible for organizing the entire unit. He’s a huge loss, but the program’s developmental formula makes me think someone else will now step up.
Big Ten: TRACR – Ohio State; Kirshner – Ohio State
The Buckeyes got beaten fair and square by eventual national champion Indiana last year, but they’re still college football’s surest guarantee. Just look beyond the FBS conference predictions to our CFP bracket projection.
The losses of three of the top 11 picks in the NFL Draft would devastate most defenses, but there’s no reason to think that will happen here. An offense with Julian Sayin throwing passes to Jeremiah Smith has a floor, if everything else goes horrendously, of being roughly a top-10 unit nationally. Oregon or Indiana could almost just as easily do the job, though, and USC is a legit contender this year.
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