El Niño conditions are 82% likely to return as soon as next month, with a 96% chance of it lasting through at least February, and there are increasing chances that the El Niño event will be moderate to very strong, but what does that mean?
Southern California, which is supposed to be wet during El Niño, was dry, while the Pacific Northwest, which is typically dry during El Niño events, was very wet. Every county in the Bay Area was within an inch or so of normal.
This year's official summer outlook by the National Weather Service is definitely leaning towards that El Niño pattern, but it also takes into account so many other variables like the effects of long-term trends and even soil moisture!
More data is needed before the official winter forecast can be made; just because we know there will be a relatively strong El Niño event doesn't mean we know exactly what's going to happen this winter.
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