Earlier this week, eight players received a qualifying offer worth $23.15MM. Arguably, Jake Bauers was the most surprising name on the list. Whether he will accept that QO or not is one of the most interesting stories of the early offseason. Arguments can be made in either direction.
Two years ago, Bauers had one foot out the door of baseball. From 2018 to 2024, he bounced around the league, playing for the Rays, Guardians, Mariners, Yankees and Brewers. Teams clearly saw the talent but Bauers couldn’t put it all together. After the 2024 season, he had a career line of .208/.302/.361. That wasn’t in a small sample. He had stepped to the plate 1,744 times at that point.
Going into 2025, Bauers was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $2.3MM. The Brewers didn’t want to pay him that, so they put him on waivers. The other 29 clubs passed. Bauers became a free agent. He recently told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he was planning to retire at that time while his wife would return to teaching, but then she became pregnant, so Bauers decided to keep playing. He returned to the Brewers on a minor league deal.
A lot has changed since then. Bauers made the Opening Day roster in 2025 still wasn’t doing much through most of the season. He had a .188/.314/.338 line at the end of August. Something clicked after that, as Bauers put up a .360/.458/.560 line in September/October. The Brewers were encouraged enough to tender Bauers a contract for 2026, paying him $2.7MM. That bet paid off, as Bauers had a career year. He hit 26 home runs and drew walks at a massive 16.3% clip. He slashed .266/.389/.484 for a 143 wRC+.
The Brewers, riding high from their World Series win, put $23.15MM in front of Bauers. That was somewhat surprising but it’s a gamble with pretty good outcomes for them. If Bauers turns it down and signs elsewhere, they get draft pick compensation out of it. If he accepts and continues his breakout in 2027, they get to keep the good times rolling. If he accepts and regresses to his prior form, that would sting but the deal would be off the books after just one year.
For Bauers, it’s an interesting calculus. He has until November 17 to talk to other teams and assess his market. His decision will depend on what other clubs are offering. The presence of the QO could have a deflationary effect on his market since he is now tied to draft pick forfeiture. Teams value those picks.
Before the QO decision was revealed, MLBTR was going to predict Bauers for a three-year deal with a $48MM guarantee. It’s possible teams value Bauers in that range in a vacuum. But if they also have to forfeit a draft pick, that odds to the cost calculus, which should lower what a team is willing to pay in cash. There was disagreement within the MLBTR staff about whether or not Bauers would accept but we ultimately decided to predict that he will.
It’s impossible to know what Bauers wants. Looking at his trajectory, you could argue this decision either way. After years of bouncing around and wondering if he would ever make it to this point, it would be understandable for him to take the biggest guarantee possible. On the other hand, he has never made more than the $2.7MM he made in 2026. He has now been offered a chance to make almost ten times that while returning to the club he just won the World Series with.
As mentioned, it will really depend what other clubs are offering, or at least floating. If Bauers thinks his ceiling is something like $40MM over two years, perhaps that’s not too tempting for him. He could get more than half of that in 2027 by staying with the Brewers, with a good chance to make up the difference in 2028 and beyond. If he thinks a healthy three- or four-year offer will be out there, then settling for one year might not be as appealing.
How do you think it will play out? Have your say in the poll below!
Will Jake Bauers accept the qualifying offer?
Yes, he'll accept No, he'll reject Don't know/Not sure Vote Vote to see results Yes, he'll accept 71% (244) No, he'll reject 25% (86) Don't know/Not sure 4% (12)Total votes: 342
Thank you for voting!
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
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