Phil Maton was not a massive signing in an absolute sense, receiving a two-year, $14.5 million deal in free agency, only the 44th largest contract this offseason.
But in a relative sense? The signing was a massive move for Cubs President Jed Hoyer, who went way outside his comfort zone by signing a reliever a multi-year contract of any size, something he had never done as President (and something the Cubs hadn’t done since Craig Kimbrel back in 2019).
And if we were judging solely based on the first couple months of the deal, it might be something Hoyer won’t do again any time soon.
After his latest rough outing last night, Phil Maton has allowed almost as many earned runs (10) as he has innings pitched (10.2). His velocity is down considerably, and all of his pitches are much flatter than they were last year, when he was borderline dominant. The hope had been that a stint on the Injured List to get over some knee irritation would help get his mechanics, and thus his results, back on track.
Until last night, there were maybe some reasons to be optimistic – he’d made five scoreless appearances since his first game back from the IL, and the strikeout rate was trending up. Here’s what Maton had to say to the Chicago Tribune Wednesday, before his appearance last night:
“I feel like I have the ability to get in my legs and kind of drive the ball down the slope that being on time with the delivery has really helped,” Maton told the Tribune on Wednesday. “I feel like I’ve been in the zone a lot more. The mistakes haven’t been as bad, a lot more competitive pitches, and I think that’s led to a little bit more success.”
Being healthy certainly has helped too. Going on the injured list to allow the tendinitis in his right knee to heal has eliminated any wondering on a day-to-day basis on how he might feel. Maton has developed a pre- and postgame routine with the training staff to make sure his knee stays strong.
“I don’t have to worry about getting my legs to throw,” Maton said. “It feels about the same every day so I can actually focus on my delivery, getting guys out and it makes my job a little bit easier — it just frees everything up to where I can focus more on competing instead of just pain management.”
So that all sounded good, and then last night happened. Not that you’d put too much stake in a single appearance, but it was a lot more of what has troubled him so far this year: velocity down from last year, pitches flatter than last year, and very loud contact on pitches out of over the plate. The sample any given night is small, but there’s a trend line there, and I don’t love it.
If you’re looking for silver linings, they’d probably go something like this. The trends are better since the IL stint, even considering last night. The velocity is down from last year, but it’s trending up. His 26.9% strikeout rate is strong, and the walks are coming down. The results have been skewed by home runs, which can SOMETIMES be flukey for relievers in a small sample. And Phil Maton is a long-time veteran who was a consistently good and successful reliever each of the last four seasons coming into this year.
For his part, Phil Maton said after the game that he feels mostly good about where his stuff is right now, and the next step is just being better about getting into those two strike counts and putting guys away with pitches not over the plate. Specifically, he doesn’t quite feel right with the curveball at the moment, and that’s long been his putaway pitch. (The data backs is up – the pitch was a monster for him last year, worth 10 runs and with a 29.8% putaway rate. This year? -5 runs(!) and a 25.0% putaway rate.)
I think he’s probably going to have to continue to work through these things in lower-leverage spots if at all possible, because the Cubs do very much need him to be the guy they expected him to be. There’s a reason Jed Hoyer stretched in the first place to sign Maton to a two-year deal. But you don’t want to have him struggling in high-leverage spots while he gets his velocity back up to normal and gets the feel for his curveball.
None of that is just lip service, by the way. We KNOW that relievers can flip a switch out of nowhere and be great again. We see it every year from various guys, and it’s nearly impossible to predict the moment it happens. I still believe in Phil Maton overall. I’m just saying there’s risk in giving him big spots right now if it can be avoided (and maybe, in the meantime, you find ways to get someone like Ethan Roberts a bigger spot or two and see how he handles it).
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