Preakness Stakes Odds: Expert Picks and Post Positions ...Middle East

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The 151st Preakness Stakes runs Saturday, May 16 at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland, marking the first and likely only time the race will be held at this venue after 108 consecutive years at Pimlico Race Course. Coverage begins at 1 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, with the main event post time at approximately 7:01 p.m. ET.

Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo will not be in the starting gate. Trainer Cherie DeVaux announced last week that the connections chose to give the Derby winner additional time before pointing toward the Belmont Stakes on June 6. That decision means there is no clear favorite carrying Derby momentum into the second leg of the Triple Crown, opening the door for a genuinely competitive field of 14 horses.

May 13, 2026; Laurel, MD, USA; Preakness Stakes entry, Talkin trains during morning workouts at Laurel Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Full Field: Post Positions, Trainers, and Jockeys

Post 1: Taj Mahal (5-1) | Trainer: Brittany Russell | Jockey: Sheldon Russell Post 2: Ocelli (6-1) | Trainer: Whit Beckman | Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Post 3: Crupper (30-1) | Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel | Jockey: Junior Alvarado Post 4: Robusta (30-1) | Trainer: Doug O’Neill | Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Post 5: Talkin (20-1) | Trainer: Danny Gargan | Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Post 6: Chip Honcho (5-1) | Trainer: Steve Asmussen | Jockey: Jose Ortiz Post 7: The Hell We Did (15-1) | Trainer: Todd Fincher | Jockey: Luis Saez Post 8: Bull By The Horns (30-1) | Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. | Jockey: Micah Husbands Post 9: Iron Honor (9-2) | Trainer: Chad Brown | Jockey: Flavien Prat Post 10: Napoleon Solo (8-1) | Trainer: Chad Summers | Jockey: Paco Lopez Post 11: Corona de Oro (30-1) | Trainer: Dallas Stewart | Jockey: John Velazquez Post 12: Incredibolt (5-1) | Trainer: Riley Mott | Jockey: Jaime Torres Post 13: Great White (15-1) | Trainer: John Ennis | Jockey: Alex Achard Post 14: Pretty Boy Miah (15-1) | Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart | Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

The Favorite: Iron Honor (9-2)

Iron Honor arrives as the morning line favorite from Post 9 under trainer Chad Brown, who has won the Preakness twice before with Cloud Computing in 2017 and Early Voting in 2022. Both of those horses ran in the Wood Memorial before bypassing the Kentucky Derby and winning the Preakness, which is the exact same path Iron Honor followed. Brown’s deliberate preparation pattern is well established and gives the connections a justified reason for confidence heading into Saturday.

Iron Honor won his first two career starts, including the Gotham Stakes, both with pace-pressing trips that suited his running style. His Wood Memorial was a different story. Breaking from the far outside in a full field, he had a troubled trip throughout and finished seventh, a result Brown and Flavien Prat chalked up to circumstance rather than ability. Prat, who won the Preakness in 2021 with Rombauer, gets the call from a workable Post 9. The combination of trainer pattern, jockey experience, and clear prep race excuse makes Iron Honor the most defensible favorite on the board. At 9-2 the price is not generous but is fair for a horse with this profile.

May 13, 2026; Laurel, MD, USA; Preakness Stakes entry, Corona de Oro trains during morning workouts at Laurel Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Main Contenders

Taj Mahal at 5-1 from Post 1 is the most debated horse in the field. He enters undefeated in three career starts, including a wire-to-wire win by more than eight lengths in his most recent outing. The raw talent is undeniable. The rail draw is the concern that has most analysts hesitating, and trainer Brittany Russell is 0-for-32 in graded stakes. If Russell can follow in the footsteps of Cherie DeVaux, who became the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, it would be one of the great stories in Triple Crown history. Jockey Sheldon Russell, Brittany’s husband, has the call. The speed is real. The situation around him is uncertain.

Incredibolt at 5-1 from Post 12 is the pick of the Derby returnees for this writer. Trained by Riley Mott and ridden by Jaime Torres, who won the 2024 Preakness aboard Seize the Grey, Incredibolt finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby after a four-length romp in the Virginia Derby. Mott has noted that Post 12 suits the colt’s tactical running style, and Torres has Preakness experience at this exact race that counts for something at Laurel. He is one of the field’s three graded stakes winners alongside Iron Honor and Napoleon Solo.

Chip Honcho at 5-1 from Post 6 draws the most historically productive gate in Preakness history. Post 6 has produced 17 winners, more than any other position in the race’s history. Jose Ortiz, who rode Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo two weeks ago, picks up the mount here for trainer Steve Asmussen. Ortiz arrives motivated and experienced. Chip Honcho has not faced a field of this quality, which is the primary caution, but the post position and jockey upgrade are meaningful factors.

Ocelli at 6-1 from Post 2 is the most unlikely star in the field. The colt is winless in seven career starts but has earned more than $600,000 through relentless consistency, including a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby at 70-1 odds. If Ocelli wins Saturday, he would become the first maiden horse to win the Preakness since 1888. Tyler Gaffalione, who won the Preakness in 2019 aboard War of Will, gets the call. Trainer Whit Beckman noted that Post 2 allows the colt to save ground into the first turn after being forced to cut wide from Derby Post 19. The story is compelling and the price offers real value given what the horse has already accomplished without winning.

Napoleon Solo at 8-1 from Post 10 is the speed of the speed in this field. He won the Champagne Stakes by six and a half lengths as a two-year-old and has the raw ability to control this race from the front if he can get the lead. Trainer Chad Summers believes there are legitimate excuses for both of his 2026 defeats, citing a heel bruise in the Fountain of Youth and a troubled start in the Wood Memorial. His recent workouts have been blazing. The concern is that this field is packed with front-runners who could make the early pace unsustainably fast, which would set up the closers.

May 13, 2026; Laurel, MD, USA; Black-Eyed Susan entry, Majestic Lucia trains during morning workouts at Laurel Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Notable Trainer and Jockey Storylines

Chad Brown is seeking his third Preakness win. He also won his first Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago with Always a Runner, which means he arrives at Laurel in good spirits and with his typical preparation pattern validated. Flavien Prat and Brown have dominated the New York racing circuit in recent years and their partnership on Iron Honor is as formidable a trainer-jockey combination as exists in this field.

John Velazquez won the Preakness in 2023 with National Treasure and rides Corona de Oro from Post 11. The 30-1 shot broke his maiden going wire to wire in March and made his stakes debut in the Lexington. The talent may be limited relative to the top of this field but Velazquez’s experience adds value.

Irad Ortiz Jr. came within a neck of winning the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago aboard Renegade before losing to Golden Tempo. He rides Talkin here from Post 5. Ortiz is a five-time Eclipse Award winner and one of the most accomplished riders in the sport. Talkin closed well in the Blue Grass and has the profile to be a live exotic play at 20-1.

Post Position Context

Post 6 leads all positions in Preakness winners with 17 all-time, which is a significant historical edge for Chip Honcho. Post 14 has never produced a winner, which is a notable negative for Pretty Boy Miah. Post 1 has a difficult historical reputation in the Preakness due to early traffic concerns, which is the central debate around Taj Mahal heading into the weekend.

The Expert Pick

Ocelli represents the best betting value in this field. He finished third in the Kentucky Derby at 70-1 and is now 6-1 in a smaller, more manageable 14-horse field at a venue where his running style, saving ground from Post 2, suits him better than Churchill Downs did. Gaffalione is a proven Preakness winner. Beckman has his horse right. The maiden tag is the risk, and it is a real one, but the price compensates for it generously.

Iron Honor at 9-2 is the most defensible win bet if you want the favorite. Incredibolt at 5-1 is the best-value play among the co-favorites. And Ocelli at 6-1 is the bet that offers genuine upset upside with a legitimate form argument behind it.

Responsible Gambling and Bankroll Management

Triple Crown races generate enormous wagering volume and the emotional pull of a historic storyline can make it easy to overbuy on exotic tickets. Set a clear Preakness budget before Saturday’s card begins, build your exotic wheels around your top three or four contenders rather than trying to cover every outcome, and resist the urge to chase results from earlier races on the card with larger bets heading into the main event.

If gambling ever feels difficult to manage, free and confidential support is available at ncpgambling.org. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources

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