Reform UK is holding on to a significant polling lead heading in to next week’s local elections, with the Greens also challenging the traditional grip of the two main parties over British politics.
A new poll for The i Paper by BMG Research has confirmed the picture of a highly fragmented political landscape with no party able to win the support of even 30 per cent of voters.
But if the picture painted by the survey proves to be an accurate guide to the elections to English councils and the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, Labour and the Conservatives can expect heavy losses with the two insurgent populist parties making major gains.
Reform is on 28 per cent, nine points ahead of Labour on 19 per cent – followed by the Tories with 17 per cent, the Greens on 16 per cent and the Liberal Democrats who are backed by 12 per cent of voters.
The figures are almost unchanged from BMG’s previous survey in late March, with a one-point fall in Conservative support the only difference, suggesting voters views are entrenched ahead of the election, with the electorate now fractured between five parties, rather than the two parties who have dominated British politics for a century.
Labour caught between Reform and Greens
Some in Labour will be relieved that the party’s position has not deteriorated further in light of the latest rows over the vetting of Peter Mandelson to be ambassador to the US, and whether Sir Keir Starmer has lied about the scandal.
But the poll shows that Reform – though declining from the heights it achieved in surveys last year – remains the single most popular party, with the Greens also on the rise.
Nearly half of those who voted for Labour in the 2024 general election now say they would not support the party, with 11 per cent of them switching to Nigel Farage’s Reform and 19 per cent preferring the Greens under Zack Polanski. Meanwhile 29 per cent of past Tory voters now endorse Reform.
Pollsters predict Labour is set to lose thousands of seats in local elections in England on Thursday. Elections will also take place for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, with Labour on course to lose Wales for the first time since the Senedd was created in 1999.
There have been suggestions that a heavy loss could trigger a challenge to Starmer’s leadership from the likes of Health Secretary Wes Streeting or former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner – but MPs are also wary of removing the Prime Minister without a clear front runner to take over.
The Greens, energised under new leader Zack Polanski, are also expected to make major gains, particularly in London areas traditionally dominated by Labour, such as Hackney and Tower Hamlets, while Reform is expected to well in the northern Labour heartlands.
Reform to be under scrutiny
A Reform landslide would see intense scrutiny on any local authorities that come under Reform control. Nigel Farage’s party would become responsible for delivering many day to day services such as bin collections, recycling and fixing potholes – as well as setting council tax rates.
Farage has admitted that the weakness in his bid for power is a lack of experience, and has asked voters to look at how well his party runs local authorities. Those Reform already control, such as Kent, have been criticised for raising council tax despite Reform pledges to cut excessive spending.
A heavy defeat for Labour could see calls for Starmer – if he survives – to tack to the left to see off the Green surge, rather than try to face both ways and fight Reform at the same time.
Kemi Badenoch may also have a difficult night, with the Tories expected to lose seats to Reform and the Lib Dems.
While his party has not fallen back since the re-emergence of the Mandelson fiasco, Starmer has taken a knock to his personal ratings which now stand at a net of -49, as just 16 per cent of people are satisfied with his performance and 65 per cent are unhappy. Badenoch is on -5 and Farage on -14.
Healthcare is now the only major policy issue where Labour is the most trusted party. Reform is ahead on crime, the cost of living, EU relations and – by a double-digit margin – immigration, while the Conservatives hold a slim lead on the economy, security and education.
Despite Reform’s lead in the polls the findings suggest that Brexit, Farage’s achievement, is broadly unpopular: 48 per cent of the public want Britain to rejoin the EU with only 35 per cent preferring to stay out.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,521 GB adults between 29 and 30 April. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
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