Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is leading former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley by over a dozen points in the race for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
A Catawba-YouGov survey found 48% of likely voters said they prefer Cooper to 34% for Whatley, including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate. 14% of respondents were undecided.
Without the respondents who said they were undecided but lean towards a candidate, Cooper holds a 47% to 31% advantage.
“What stands out is the contrast between the Senate race and the broader partisan environment,” said Michael Bitzer, Catawba College history and politics professor and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics and Public Service.
Trump won North Carolina three times, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by 3.2% in 2024. The Tar Heel State also has not had a Democratic U.S. Senator since Kay Hagan, who served from 2009 to 2015.
Other polls from Carolina Journal, Healthier United and Carolina Forward have also found Cooper leading Whatley, but by much smaller margins.
National Democrats view the seat as one of their best opportunities in 2026 to close the partisan gap in the upper chamber. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, with two independents caucusing with the Democrats.
There’s a stark contrast in voter familiarity with the two candidates vying to replace retiring GOP U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper holds a 48% approval rating statewide. On the other hand, 44% of respondents said they are unfamiliar with Whatley.
While the former governor benefits from having a strong Democratic support base, Bitzer pointed out, his appeal is wider. Almost half of independent voters at 46% said they were inclined to vote for Cooper, twice as many as the 23% of independents who said they would vote for Whatley.
Cooper was governor from 2017 to 2025, and served four terms as Attorney General before that. In both roles, he won some support from voters across the political spectrum.
“Cooper’s double-digit lead, even as both parties have relatively weak standing, suggests voters are potentially responding more to the candidate’s familiarity and profile than to party labels alone, with some openness to crossing party lines,” Bitzer said. “Cooper has shown this in his past runs, and early on it looks like he is continuing this trend.”
Whatley, who led the North Carolina Republican Party from 2019 to 2024, has support in the Catawba poll from 72% of Republican voters. However, only 27% of independent respondents said they would vote for him in the survey.
“When it comes to Whatley’s standing, there is still a sizable portion of his own party and independents who are unfamiliar with him,” Bitzer said. “And yet, he still garners strong support from Republican identifiers, which underscores the role of partisan loyalty in shaping early preferences.”
Republicans are losing favorability nationally as gas prices and the cost of living continue to rise. More than half of North Carolinians said they disapprove of Trump at 55%, while 42% said they approve, according to the survey.
Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics and Public Service wrote and paid for the poll. YouGov interviewed 1,266 North Carolina residents above the age of 18 between March 9 and 18.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.58 percent.
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