You could make a very credible case for Nikola Jokic to have won the last five NBA MVP awards. He’s won three of them, of course, and added an NBA Finals MVP for good measure. And the two years he didn’t win? He was a close second both times, and with statistical measurements like Player Efficiency Ratings to look at, he should have won in those two, as well.
So if things had gone as they should have, Joker would be going for an unprecedented and unheard of sixth consecutive MVP this season. Just try to think about that for a moment. Wow.
Statistically, he’s right there again, vying to become the first player ever to lead the NBA in rebounds and assists in the same season. He’s wracking up triple-doubles almost as fast as last season’s MVP, Oklahoma City star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, accumulates trips to the free-throw line.
The big Serbian and future slam-dunk basketball Hall of Famer is, once again, averaging a Triple-Double this season, just like he did in the last one. Once again: unheard of.
Nevertheless, Jokic won’t win another NBA MVP award this season. He probably won’t even finish second this time around.
Nuggets Nation can cry foul (like Joker does nearly every time he handles the ball) but if you’re being honest, something still looks… off with Jokic. When you watch him labor against smaller defenders and swarming defenses camped out all around him, you see some frustration. He doesn’t appear to be having fun on the court; complaining about being fouled, and pleading his case time after time. In his defense, he’s probably right – but that doesn’t make the arm-waving gestures and the painful talks with the officials look any better. There’s just far too much of that.
But griping at officials isn’t what’s dooming his bid for another MVP award. There are a couple of other factors.
First, one of the many selling points Nuggets fans/Jokic promoters have pushed in past seasons is how much worse the team plays when Jokic is on the bench – or not in uniform at all. Then, in January, the Joker-less Nuggets found a way to win 10 of the 16 games he missed, making the “can’t play without him” plea ring shallow, at least for this season.
They’ve played worse with him suited up at times this season.
Regardless, what’s harming his candidacy the most this season is Joker’s painfully high number of turnovers and the fact that the Nuggets aren’t perceived as threats to win the West this season. Some of the turnovers are the result of double-teams and a totally predictable offensive scheme. Others are just sloppy. No one has to be reminded that Jokic missed those 16 games in January, and the rust was noticeable when he returned. But that does not explain the late-game sloppiness.
Jokic is averaging almost four turnovers a game, and it’s been worse than that recently. He’s flirted with 10 turnovers in a single game a couple of times in the past few weeks. His “turnover ratio” is the weak link in his stat line, with a poor mark of 10.9, which ranks him 364th in the league. It means he turns the ball over once for every 11 times he handles the rock.
SGA, on the other hand, is at 6.7, a far superior ranking.
Years ago, then-ESPN analyst John Hollinger (now with The Athletic) came up with the all-encompassing “Player Efficiency Rating” in an attempt to boil everything that happens on a basketball court down to a single stat. Any cumulative score above a 35.0 is considered elite, and Joker has lived in that stratosphere in recent years. This year, he sits in second place, behind the injured Giannis Antetokounmpo, with a PER of 32.78. He’s slightly ahead of SGA, who is at 31.25 right now.
But the latest glut of turnovers is what’s keeping Jokic from blowing up Hollinger’s computer program.
Nuggets fans don’t need a computer to tell them Joker is turning the ball over far too often.
For years, especially prior to Denver winning the NBA title in 2023, when they snuck up on most of the league, we’ve been begging the national media to pay attention, to watch Joker play the game. You needed to do that to appreciate his artistry. Finally now, most of the league is watching, and while the artistry is still there much of the time, when it’s not – when Jokic and his teammates are turning the ball over with sloppy passes and unfocused play – we kinda wish they weren’t.
Strike 1: Joker’s case for another MVP is toast Mile High Sports.
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