Arizona is one game away from its first Final Four in 25 years, and it got here in the way many would have expected.
The Wildcats were the first team in NCAA Tournament history to have at least six players with 14 points or more in their trouncing of fourth-seeded Arkansas in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.
It is an unmatchable balance that top-seeded Arizona has relied on both offensively and defensively throughout the season, and its Elite Eight matchup with second-seeded Purdue simply comes down to providing that one more time.
That’s because, in many ways, Purdue is trying to win like that too.
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The Boilermakers sport the best offense in the country with four players averaging double figures, including seniors Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer all between 14.1-14.3 points per game. The trio were all starters on the runner-up squad two years ago that was led by Zach Edey, so the incredible levels of poise and familiarity Arizona relies upon are matched by Purdue.
The Boilermakers generate 19.9 assists per game, third in D1, while shooting 50.3% from the field, ninth in D1. While volume on 3-pointers (24.2 3PA/G, 142nd) and free throws (17.1 FTA/G, 324th) aren’t high, Purdue is efficient both from deep (38.8%, ninth) and at the foul line (74.9%, 82nd).
But a big issue they will run into is there isn’t a go-to matchup against Arizona. While Purdue is used to capitalizing on an ability to rely on different primary options depending on who fits best, there is no correct answer here. Arizona has an answer for each key guy.
Smith is a top-notch point guard and broke Bobby Hurley’s assist record but was a combined 9-of-28 in the last two rounds and scored 15-plus against a ranked opponent in the regular season just three times in 10 tries. He is more precise with his touch around the basket and the angles he takes as opposed to a factor with his speed, so Arizona’s defensive guard pair of Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries armed with agility and long arms should make things uncomfortable for him.
Kaufman-Renn and Loyer are the X-factors. Both have had fits of inconsistency, like Smith, and both play into key parts of this matchup. Kaufman-Renn can counter Arizona’s size a bit, while Loyer brings the shooting difference.
Kaufman-Renn’s meticulous and physical post game at 6-foot-9 and 240 pounds works best bullying a lot of smaller, less mature players. He will not be getting that benefit against the Wildcats, although he has been playing much better lately, with 21.3 points per game in the tourney and 19-plus in eight of his last 13 games.
Loyer’s the sharpshooter, taking 6.6 3-point attempts per game at 43.3%. What Arizona has to worry about is a barrage from him, but Loyer has only made five-plus 3s in four games this year, and Wildcats shutdown defender Ivan Kharchenkov will be glued to his hip.
Even though senior Oscar Cluff has proven to be a valuable transfer addition for Purdue, neither he or his frontcourt partner Kaufman-Renn are one of the first three bigs NBA scouts will be watching in Saturday’s game. All those tools are on the Wildcats’ side. At the same time, that doesn’t mean either Purdue big shies away from the physicality, and they’ll be ready to battle.
Purdue’s depth can have its moments with freshman guard Omer Mayer and sophomore 7-foot-4 center Daniel Jacobsen having impact performances this year, but again, it’s the Wildcats we’re talking about. Their depth in the frontcourt has come through constantly, and that’s a decisive edge.
Even if Loyer isn’t a flamethrower, Purdue has put up 12-plus 3s in nine games this year, largely on the backs of Loyer, Mayer and Smith. When things are rolling, all three can score in bunches through good defense and strong shot contests.
All of those Purdue players are better on offense than defense for a unit ranked 36th by KenPom. It’s not nearly Arkansas bad, but if Arizona executes, it should have no problem scoring.
How Purdue keeps Arizona off the foul line to help bottle up the offense that just exploded for 109 points will be the determining factor.
Arizona’s fourth in free-throw attempts per game (26.6), while we previously covered how Purdue is bottom-50 with its mark (17.1). The Boilermakers, however, are third in opposing free-throw rate, giving up an average of just 14.4 a night. That’s a difference of a dozen. Miami and Texas combined to take just 25 against Purdue, two less than Arizona’s average per game. If Arizona does its normal damage there, Purdue’s major woes in generating free throws would create a margin too extreme to work uphill against while taking on arguably the top team in the tournament.
The Boilermakers have similar extremes going on with turnovers. They don’t commit many (9.0, eighth) but don’t force many (10.2, 307th).
Arizona’s length and athleticism has made inferior units with those attributes sloppy all year. A giveaway gap would spell another major advantage for the Wildcats.
A nonnegotiable for Purdue will be on the glass, where it has been pretty darn good. Just not Arizona levels of good. Its offensive rebounding margin of +2.4 a night is actually better than Arizona’s +2.2, while overall rebounding margin leans in the Wildcats’ favor (+11.5, 3rd) over the Boilermakers (+7.0, 20th).
Tommy Lloyd and his staff have done superb work all year long as tacticians, and this is their toughest foe of the tourney yet in Matt Painter, a coach as well respected as any with late-game execution. He’ll make his fair share of adjustments too, so Lloyd will have to be on his A-game, especially if his squad isn’t.
All things said, this is a very fortunate draw for Arizona. Its calling card the whole season has been consistency, and it will take on a team in Purdue that went 6-7 in its final 13 regular-season games before winning the Big Ten Tournament, then just went wire-to-wire with a 15-loss Texas team.
It’s also the dance. Anything can happen, as we’ve seen in Arizona’s previous four Elite Eight appearances.
It completely melted down in 2005 after being up 15 on Illinois with under four minutes left, and then had two 3-point tries not go down while trailing by two on the last possession versus UConn in 2011. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker had the games of their respective lives back-to-back years for Wisconsin in 2014 and 2015.
This one, however, feels totally in Arizona’s control. If it plays to its level and standard, this will not only be a victory but a decisive one. Thursday was maybe the best job the Wildcats have done at doing that. Let’s see if they can follow that up.
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