WASHINGTON DC – As President Donald Trump’s war on Iran enters its third full week, the US leader has been hoisted with his own petard.
With no sense of history, and no interest in learning about it, Trump was always doomed eventually to repeat it. By choosing to join the Israelis in wading into Iran without any fact-based reason, and without any plan either for exiting troops, or for the day after their withdrawal, his ludicrously named “Operation Epic Fury” can already be considered “Operation Epic Fail”.
In reality, Pentagon chiefs should probably have named it “Operation 52-Card Pickup”, for that is exactly what it has turned out to be: a hope-for-the-best chucking of all the Middle East cards into the air. Having started with a possible American war crime against innocents in a girls’ school, it now runs the risk of dragging the country into the kind of “forever conflict” that Trump promised voters he would, at all costs, avoid.
The weekend witnessed more of the nonsense that is already the daily hallmark of this administration’s war-time demeanour: that everything is going according to plan, coupled with continuing assertions about America’s military prowess.
Despite its furious attacks against the growing media reports that reveal the panicked reality taking place behind the scenes in the White House, the truth will always out.
Clockwise from top left: Trump with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles monitoring Operation Epic Fury against Iran on 28 February; US Vice President JD Vance, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the Situation Room in Washington, DC on the same day; US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine points to a screen (Photo: The White House / AFP via Getty Images)On Saturday, Trump showed himself to be an increasingly naked emperor. In one social media post, contradictory claims that Iran’s military capacity had already been “destroyed 100 per cent” sat right alongside a warning that the regime still finds it “easy to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere”. A non sequitur for the ages.
There was, of course, a second contradiction folded, bold as brass, into the same Truth Social diatribe. Trump’s insistence that he now needs the British Navy (among others) to ride to his aid in the Strait of Hormuz, came just one week after he pummelled the Prime Minister for considering the belated deployment of….the Royal Navy.
“We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!” was the claim on 7 March. By 14 March, suddenly Trump was conceding that the battle was still very much under way.
Since the White House does not traffic in facts or reality, thousands more American troops are now getting their marching orders to head to the Middle East, despite the existing assembly of the largest US military presence there since President George W Bush opted to unseat Saddam Hussein in Iraq after falsely claiming he had a stockpile of “weapons of mass destruction.”
For many observers, the Iran operation already smells suspiciously like Iraq all over again. In both cases, the US grasped at made-up claims about the enemy’s military capacity, coupled with an urgency to act to prevent a non-existent “imminent threat” to American national security.
Debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility, according to authorities, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates on Saturday (Photo: Altaf Qadri/ AP)But in 2003, at least there was the semblance of a plan for the conflict, if not for the day after. And while Bush infamously took to the deck of an aircraft carrier to declare “Mission Accomplished” when it hadn’t been, even that gambit is not available to Trump without drawing obvious comparisons to the “forever war” that Iraq became.
The news that on day six of this new conflict, the former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (under George W Bush) was glimpsed on the White House campus only underscores the failings of an administration that entirely comprises Trump loyalists and sycophants. Vice President JD Vance appears to have been the only person in the Situation Room counselling against the Iran adventure, but then folded his cards and urged the President to “go big and go fast”.
At least he will always be able to tell voters that Trump just didn’t go “big” or “fast” enough.
Time is no longer on the President’s side. The Iranians know that every day they can tough it out, creating a security threat to the Strait that ratchets the oil price even higher, and perhaps even goading Trump into a potentially disastrous deployment of ground troops, is another day they have revealed the failure of a US strategy that anticipated a rapid collapse of their regime.
US Senator Lindsey Graham is now pushing for the US to take Iran’s strategic Kharg Island (Photo: Elizabeth Frantz/ Reuters)With the weekend’s news that an expeditionary force of 2,500 US Marines is heading to the region, speculation is growing in Washington that Trump may be planning a daring commando raid to try and seize stockpiles of enriched uranium that he claimed, only last summer, had been totally destroyed.
Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, is also mooted as another possible destination for the Marines, with Trump whisperer Senator Lindsey Graham calling the island “a single target…that could dramatically alter the outcome of the conflict”. He claimed that “he who controls Kharg Island controls the destiny of this war”.
It’s enough to make an armchair general or an American voter wonder why Kharg was not on the list of targets for night one – or even week one – of the conflict.
With the possible exception of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, there are simply no adults in the room where the war is being extemporised. Trump continues to make it up as he goes along, with the lives of American service personnel hanging in the balance, and all thought of liberating the Iranian people to take matters into their own hands, long gone from his talking points.
For the US President, there is no obvious off-ramp in Iran, and no way out for a man whose hubris is now on permanent display.
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