No. 25 Tennessee hosts Ole Miss tonight. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN2).
Tennessee (15-6, 5-3 SEC) climbed back into the AP Top 25 on the strength of a 3-game winning streak, including road victories at Alabama and Georgia and a gritty home win over Auburn. Despite missing starting center Felix Okpara to a calf injury, the Vols got massive contributions from Nate Ament and Bishop Boswell to control the glass against Auburn.
Ole Miss (11-10, 3-5 SEC) has lost three straight, including a heartbreaker at Vanderbilt. Tonight’s game will be Ole Miss’ 3rd of 4 consecutive SEC road games.
Oddsmakers aren’t anticipating a lot of drama. The Vols are consensus 11.5-point home favorites.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie leads the the Vols (18.6). He will square off against an Ole Miss unit featuring AJ Storr and Malik Dia, who need to generate explosive plays to keep pace in Knoxville.
We’ll preview the SEC game and offer our expert betting advice for Vols vs. Rebels.
Ole Miss vs Tennessee Odds MarketOle MissTennesseeSpread+11.5 (-109)-11.5 (-111)Moneyline+560-840TotalOver 140.5 (-108)Under 140.5 (-111)Odds subject to change.
The board shows Tennessee as a -840 moneyline favorite, which implies the Vols win this game roughly 85.5% of the time. Ole Miss sits as a +560 underdog, giving the Rebels just a 14.5% implied probability of pulling the upset.
A $5 bet on Tennessee (-840) to win outright would net a mere $0.60 in profit — hardly worth the squeeze. However, that same $5 wager on an Ole Miss (+560) shocker would return $28.00 in profit. The spread is set at 11.5.
Tennessee vs Ole Miss Team StatsWho has the edge tonight in Knoxville?
StatisticOle MissTennesseeOverall Record11-10 (3-5 SEC)15-6 (5-3 SEC)RPI Rank12132Points Per Game74.582.1Points Allowed Per Game71.269.8Scoring Margin+3.3+12.3Field Goal %43.9%47.7%Strength of Schedule0.54690.5823Record vs. RPI Top 500-74-5 Tennessee vs Ole Miss Best BetThe Pick: Tennessee -11.5 (-110) via BetMGM
If you’re leaning toward taking the points, it’s worth noting that Tennessee is 5-7 ATS as a home favorite this season — and Ole Miss is 5-1 as a road underdog.
We’re banking on Tennessee’s massive talent advantage and road woes hampering Ole Miss. You rarely bet against a ranked home team facing an unranked opponent on a losing streak, and that’s the case tonight.
Ole Miss is 0-7 against Top 50 RPI teams, and it is playing its 6th road game in their past 9 conference matchups. That is a brutal stretch of travel that wears down a roster.
Tennessee also is 11-1 at home, whereas Ole Miss is just 2-4 in true road games.
Tennessee is playing like a team with Sweet 16 aspirations. The Vols’ average scoring margin of +12.3 suggests they are comfortable blowing teams out.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.6 PPG) is the best player on the floor, and with the depth the Vols showed against Auburn, they have too many weapons for a struggling Rebels defense to contain. Lay the points and expect Tennessee to pull away in the second half for a comfortable victory.
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