The United States’strategy of forcing Iran back to nuclear negotiations through militarypressure, economic strain, and domestic unrest risks backfiring by entrenchingTehran’s leadership rather than weakening it, an Iran policy expert said onSaturday.
Tensions between Tehranand Washington have escalated since protests erupted across Iran on December 28following the collapse of the national currency. The Human Rights ActivistsNews Agency (HRANA) claimed that at least 6,100 people were killed, whileIranian authorities have acknowledged about 3,000 deaths, prompting Washingtonto intensify pressure on Tehran through sanctions enforcement, militarydeployments, and warnings of possible strikes.
Military escalationalso carries significant risks, he told our agency, noting that externalattacks often trigger a rally-around-the-flag effect in highly nationalisticsocieties, enabling authorities to suppress dissent and portray oppositionforces as aligned with foreign powers. A strike, he added, could even stabilizethe regime in the short term, undermining Washington’s objectives.
Ultimately, he said,Iran’s political trajectory will be shaped primarily by internal dynamics.“External pressure may accelerate [change], but it cannot replace it.”
Read more: US pressure on Iran intensifies; analysts assess strike scenarios and regional risks
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