Yesterday, we talked about the unusual – not necessarily bad, but definitely unusual – initial projection of International Free Agent prospects expected to sign with the Chicago Cubs come the open of the period on January 15.
In short, although the Cubs have historically been tied to multiple seven-figure prospects right at the open of the period, concentrating the vast majority of their entire bonus pool in one or two or three players, this year’s top 50 bonus list at Baseball America had just one Cubs-connected prospects, with a bonus well below $2 million. The organization’s allotted bonus pool is a little under $7 million, and that disparity is not something we’ve seen for the Cubs in the hard-capped era. In other words, usually, most of the money is going to prospects within the top 50 bonuses.
So, something is unusual this time around.
Talking through the possible explanations, the one I really *hoped* for was a philosophical change in approach, where the Cubs load up on volume in the lower-bonus tier (not because I know enough to prefer that approach, but instead because it means the Cubs are still maxing out their spending, and, hey, the old way wasn’t exactly working well).
The good news is that there is some excellent reporting out there from Francys Romero that indicates, yes, the reason the Cubs don’t show up much on the list of player who’ll be getting $1 million+ bonuses is because they are connected to a boatload of six-figure, and near-six-figure, prospects instead (one of whom we already know about, as Cuban infielder Jaims Martinez was moved from last year’s class to this year’s). We very well may have seen a philosophical shift toward volume in the IFA game, combined with leaving a little powder dry again this year, like last year, to pick up any additional players who become available throughout the year.
We’ll see much more on this when the signing period opens up on January 15. It may wind up a very interesting class for the Cubs.
Something else interesting to share on this topic while we’re here. The Dodgers, like the Cubs, are attached to just one $1 million-ish prospect on the BA list, and the Yankees are attached to none. I can’t say for sure what’s going on with the Dodgers, but the Yankees thing appears to be tied to their ongoing overhaul on the international side:
This is a big story.The Yankees canceling all their international pre-agreements 10 days before signing day doesn’t just cost them this class. It very likely damages the next few classes as well.The IFA market runs on memory. Trainers remember who honors deals and who walks… t.co/OMObdVtvNK
— Rational Yankees Fan (@rational_yankee) January 5, 2026No pre-arranged deals at all still in place. Wow. That leaves a lot of prospects probably scrambling for new organizations, and I suspect many of those deals have already been put into place. Heck, maybe the Cubs are picking up one or two, and that’s also part of their process this time around. Recall, the Cubs already added a Yankees-departing prospect late last year (when they traded Nico Zeglin to the Astros to get extra pool space and sign Bryant Ciriaco).
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