Montana State is roughly a 10.5-point favorite over Illinois State as they get set to meet in the 2025 FCS championship game. Here’s a capsule preview and prediction.
Their programs have never met previously, but FCS finalists Montana State and Illinois State must gain a sense of familiarity from the other heading into the national championship game Monday night in Nashville, Tennessee.
They arrive from the same Missouri Valley (Illinois State) and Big Sky (Montana State) conferences that have produced the only FCS finalists for five consecutive seasons.
The likes of recent champions North Dakota State and South Dakota State from the MVFC and fellow national power Montana from the Big Sky will pound the run to set up the pass, win the line of scrimmage, and be both opportunistic and physical defensively.
And, yes, those traits also describe No. 2 seed Montana State (13-2), which seeks a breakthrough under coach Brent Vigen after being the national runner-up in 2021 and ’24, and Illinois State (12-4), the first team to win four road games on the way to the championship game.
Montana State, meet the Illinois State Redbirds.
Illinois State, meet the Montana State Bobcats.
But you already kind of know each other.
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Kickoff – 7:30 p.m. ET Jan. 5 (ESPN) at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Series – First meeting
Wins in 2025 FCS Playoffs – Montana State: Yale (21-13), Stephen F. Austin (44-28), Montana (48-23); Illinois State: at Southeastern Louisiana (21-6), at North Dakota State (29-28), at UC Davis (42-31), at Villanova (30-14)
Coaches – Montana State: Brent Vigen (60-12, fifth season); Illinois State: Brock Spack (123-78, 17th season)
3 Players to Watch – Montana State: QB Justin Lamson (2,892 passing yards, 72.0 completion%, 28 TDs, 3 INTs; 704 rushing yards, 14 TDs), RB Adam Jones (3 games of 100+ rushing yards in 2025 playoffs, 17 overall TDs), S Caden Dowler (returning from injury with 90 tackles, 6 INTs, 2 forced fumbles); Illinois State: QB Tommy Rittenhouse (3,257 passing yards, 36 TDs, 12 INTs; 402 rushing yards, 7 TDs), WR Daniel Sobkowicz (78 receptions, 1,089 yards, 18 TDs; 7 TD catches in 2025 playoffs), LB Tye Niekamp (155 tackles, 14.5 TFL, 2 takeaways, 8 pass breakups)
Notable – Montana State is in the championship game for the fourth time, having claimed one title in 1984 with a 19-6 victory over Louisiana Tech in Charleston, South Carolina. Illinois State fell 29-27 to NDSU to cap the 2014 season in its only previous appearance. … ISU is the first unseeded finalist since Youngstown State in 2016, but the first in the eight FCS playoffs to have 16 seeded teams (1995-2000, 2024-present). … The Redbirds have the highest average time of possession (36:28) in the playoffs, utilizing Victor Dawson as a workhorse (97 carries, including 86 in the last three games). … Sobkowicz is ISU’s career leader in receptions (257) and TD catches (40), and with 3,507 receiving yards is 58 shy of all-time leader Tyrone Walker (3,565). … The Redbirds have intercepted 19 passes, led by CB Shadwel Nkuba II with five. Their defense has produced 18+ picks in three straight seasons. … MSU’s fourth-ranked rushing offense (234.5 yards per game) features Julius Davis (1,100) and Jones (1,047), the FCS’ only pair of teammates to be above 1,000 yards. … Lamson’s efficiency and ball protection have helped the Bobcats to a plus-16 turnover margin, which is tied for third nationally. However, their 29 sacks allowed are more than the last two seasons combined (21) and their highest total since 2012. … The Bobcats have eight takeaways and nine sacks in their three playoff wins. Defensive end Kenneth Eiden IV had three sacks against Stephen F. Austin in the quarterfinals, while LB Bryce Grebe had a pick-6 against Montana in the semifinals. … MSU’s Myles Sansted, the FCS leader in kicking points (121) for the second consecutive season, is 17 of 21 (81.0%) on field goal attempts with a long of 48 yards. ISU’s Michael Cosentino replaced season-long starter Matt Maldonado in the semifinal-round win at Villanova and was 3 of 3 with a long of 35 yards.
Opta Win Probabilities – Montana State: 84.1%; Illinois State: 15.9%
Prediction – Montana State 27, Illinois State 22
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FCS Championship Game: Montana State vs. Illinois State Preview & Prediction Opta Analyst.
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