Safe to say the 2025 regular season didn’t go as hoped for Texas or Michigan.
Arch Manning’s Heisman bid ended early, and the Longhorns came up short in their Playoff bid. Michigan lost 3 games and fired coach Sherrone Moore for unsavory conduct. Consider their Citrus Bowl showdown (3 pm, ET, Wednesday on ESPN) an opportunity for redemption.
Texas opened as a 4.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, but that consensus line has grown to 7.5 on Dec. 30. We break down what matters most and offer our best bet for the Citrus Bowl.
Texas vs Michigan Citrus Bowl Odds
The betting markets have established Texas as a significant favorite. The consensus odds reflect strong confidence in the Longhorns, with the spread experiencing fluctuations as betting interest evolves.
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotalMichigan Wolverines+7.5 (-113)+250Over 48.5 (-107)Texas Longhorns-7.5 (-107)-311Under 48.5 (-114)Texas enters with a moneyline of -311, indicating substantial oddsmaker confidence in a Longhorns victory. Michigan sits as the underdog at +250, requiring the Wolverines to either win outright or lose by fewer than eight points to cover the spread. The game total suggests a high-scoring affair.
Based on current moneyline odds, the implied win probabilities (with sportsbook vig removed) are:
Texas Longhorns: Implied win probability is 75.7% Michigan Wolverines: Implied win probability is 28.6%For bettors, a successful $10 wager on the favored Longhorns would net a profit of $3.21, while a winning $10 bet on the underdog Wolverines would yield a more substantial profit of $25.
Bet365 Sportsbook has the Longhorns at -275, which would produce a $3.64 profit on a $10 bet.
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