There is a tier of free agent starting pitcher below the group we’ve talked about most often this offseason, many of whom are interesting, but who come with the kinds of warts we don’t necessarily attach to the top-tier group. For the most part, we haven’t really seen a lot of movement – or even rumors – in that group (the Lucas Giolito’s, the Chris Bassitt’s, the Zack Littell’s, the Justin Verlander’s, the Max Scherzer’s, the Tyler Mahle’s). Only Merrill Kelly has signed, inking a two-year, $40 million deal with the Diamondbacks.
Now, there’s another signing in that group:
The Baltimore Orioles, making another big move to return to the postseason, sign veteran starter Zach Eflin to a one-year deal.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 29, 2025Breakdown of Zach Eflin’s one-year, $10 million contract with the Orioles, per source: $5 million salary in 2026. $3 million signing bonus. $2 million buyout. The buyout and option can both increase by $1 million with 15 starts in 2026, an additional $1.5 million with 20 starts,…
— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) December 29, 2025Zach Eflin, 31, struggled in his first year with the Orioles in 2025, putting up rough numbers and then having back surgery. Before that, he was actually quietly a very solid starting pitcher, posting a 3.85 ERA over six seasons (746.2 IP) from 2019 to 2024 (about 8% better than league average). That’s the guy the Orioles are hoping they can get back, but obviously the contract structure suggests they saw a lot of risk there. Hence the extreme protections and incentives.
In addition to being notable for the potential market movement – is this tier gonna see some movement now while teams wait out the upper group? what about with Tatsuya Imai’s posting ending next weekend? – the signing is potentially really significant for the Orioles, specifically. That is to say … is this it for them? Are they finally done adding? To the rotation, at least? That’s Shane Baz acquired and Eflin re-signed, and they can pretty easily go six deep now.
It would certainly be nice to know they’re finished competing on starting pitchers, especially if it’s a mid-tier guy like Eflin who takes them out.
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