Some of these individual Bullets are longgggg, but there weren’t great spots to break them up …
In Patrick Mooney’s write-up about the Cubs’ interest in Zac Gallen (which came after the erroneous report of them signing him, and which we discussed yesterday), there were a number of reasons offered for the interest, and we’ve pretty much touched on them all at one point or another throughout this offseason’s starting pitcher search. One thing we didn’t discuss specifically in relation to Gallen, however, is the Cubs’ desire to add “more swing-and-miss stuff,” especially in the postseason. That desire is understandable, given how focused the Cubs have been on contact-managing types, as they have generally found a bit of a market inefficiency there, especially as they’ve continued to field an exceptional defense. You’d like to have more variety, and, in the postseason, allowing more balls in play creates quite a bit more randomness (Matthew Boyd just discussed how, in his NLDS blow-up, maybe things are different if a couple balls in play are a little differently directed – that’s partly the randomness risk). All else equal, yes of course I’d want the Cubs to add more swing-and-miss type(s) to their rotation. But back to Gallen – is he actually a guy who adds more swing-and-miss? In his youngest days, his strikeout rate approached 30%, before falling to the 25-26% range from 2021-24. Not elite, but well above average for a starting pitcher, and when he had a walk rate around 6-7%, you’re talking about a K-BB split that was among the best in baseball. But in 2025, that strikeout rate plummeted to a more league-average 21.5%, with an 8.1% BB. Those numbers were a better 22.3 and 6.2, respectively from July on, but that’s still more like what you’d expect from a contact-manager, not a strikeout guy. Moreover, his zone contact rate has climbed steadily throughout his career to 91.2% this season, which was the highest among all qualified starting pitchers. His overall contact rate was 78.7%, 17th highest in baseball, and one spot behind Matthew Boyd. Even from 2021-2024, when he was outstanding, he wasn’t a swing-and-miss guy – his whiff rate was solidly below league average during that time, and even when it peaked in individual seasons, it was just about league average. That is all to say, however much you might like Zac Gallen for the Cubs, he’s probably not a swing-and-miss guy. He’s likely going to be a contact-manager type going forward. That’s not exclusively a knock, as we’ve seen those guys can do very well with the Cubs (and other top names out there like Ranger Suarez, for example, fall into that category, too). But, I’m just saying, adjust expectations accordingly for the type. For me, Gallen falls into the “better than getting no one, and I’d be happy enough with it” group. Prefer Tatsuya Imai, Sandy Alcantara, and Michael King, for example. Interestingly, another name pops up on the trade possibilities list who COULD be more of a swing-and-miss type. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon report that, in addition to Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, the Marlins might also be fielding trade interest in lefty Ryan Weathers, who has three years of arbitration remaining. Weathers, 25, hasn’t been able to stay healthy enough yet to really break out like many thought he could, and his results so far have fallen more into the contact-manager type than the true strikeout artist type. But he’s got the kind of loud stuff that could click into another level if you were willing to take the risk on the health and the development. Biiiig risk, big upside there. The Cubs and Marlins have had trade talks before, so I do wonder if they have discussed Weathers. Jameson Taillon, getting after it online and on the field:Who said MLB Free Agency is boring ?
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