NFL Playoff Picture: Broncos Statement, Seahawks Stumble, Bears Enter the Conversation, More ...Middle East

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The Broncos dealt the Chiefs a massive blow in their pursuit of 10 straight AFC West titles, the Bills and Ravens are surging, the Bears are making noise, and the Seahawks stumbled in L.A. in Week 11.

That, and more, in this week’s NFL playoff picture check-in.

NFL Playoff Picture

AFC Playoff Picture: Broncos Mile High Statement; Bills, Ravens Surging

Note: Division leaders are bolded, playoff probabilities courtesy of the NFL’s official website.

1. Denver Broncos (9-2) (96%)

2. New England Patriots (9-2) (98%)

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2) (90%)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) (39%)

5. Buffalo Bills (7-3) (93%)

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) (60%)

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) (65%)

8. Houston Texans (5-5) (29%)

9. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) (51%)

10. Baltimore Ravens (5-5) (77%)

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles with the ball in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

I asked last week: “How real is the top of the AFC?”

The Broncos answered with a statement win against the Chiefs. The Patriots took care of business with a win over an awful Jets team on TNF, and the Colts were on the bye, allowing Denver and New England to leapfrog them in the standings.

It might be a few weeks yet before we figure out how real the Patriots are. New England has matchups with the Bengals and the Giants before their Week 14 bye. However, they return from the bye with matchups with the Bills and the Ravens. Let’s circle back around that time.

This isn’t the Chiefs we’re used to seeing. The 5-5 record is their worst start in the Reid-Mahomes era. But they’re still the Chiefs, and a win for the Broncos in Week 11 was significant. Denver’s offense needs to find some consistency, but its defense has kept it afloat.

As for the Chiefs, they’ll host the Colts this week in a matchup that will impact the AFC playoff conversation one way or another.

Best of the rest …

The Bills have won three of four since their bye week and have matchups with the Texans, Steelers, and Bengals before their Week 15 game against New England. That’s going to be their most crucial game of the season, and could play a significant role in the AFC East and the AFC playoff seeding. The Chiefs find themselves on the outside looking in on November 18, but will they stay there? It’s still too early to count them out, but that loss to Denver was a massive blow to their pursuit of a 10th consecutive AFC West title. The Ravens are 4-0 since the bye week and have matchups against the Jets, Steelers, and Bengals (twice) between now and their Week 16 meeting with New England. It’s possible Baltimore could be 9-5 or 8-6 when they take on the Patriots in Week 16, potentially setting up a massive game for both teams and the rest of the pack. Jan 4, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) arrives before the game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

NFC Playoff Picture: Bears Making Noise, Seahawks Stumble

Note: Division leaders are bolded, playoff probabilities courtesy of NFL.com.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) (99%)

2. Los Angeles Rams (8-2) (99%)

3. Chicago Bears (7-3) (58%)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) (85%)

5. Seattle Seahawks (7-3) (90%)

6. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1) (74%)

7. San Francisco 49ers (7-4) (86%)

8. Detroit Lions (6-4) (74%)

9. Carolina Panthers (6-5) (21%)

10. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1) (7%)

Nov 16, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) and quarterback Caleb Williams (18) celebrate a touchdown during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

I asked last week: “Are the Seahawks the most dangerous team?”

They answered that question with a four-interception performance for Sam Darnold and a loss to the Los Angeles Rams, knocking them down to the fifth seed in the NFC playoff picture.

It was an awful day for Sam Darnold, but Seattle still managed to lose by two points and hold the Rams to 21 points, an accomplishment in its own right considering the numbers Matthew Stafford and L.A.’s offense were putting up entering the week. The Seahawks may have gotten a reality check in Week 11, but doubting them down the stretch would be a mistake.

The Eagles took care of business at home against the Detroit Lions to keep the top spot, and the Rams moved into the No. 2 seed with their win against the Seahawks. Philly’s win over Detroit, coupled with Chicago’s victory in Minnesota, moved the Bears into first place in the NFC North and the No. 3 seed in the NFC. It also knocked the Lions out of the playoff picture entirely (for the time being). Plus, it sets up up a juicy Bears-Packers wild card round matchup at Soldier Field if things ended today.

Nov 17, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears running back D’Andre Swift (4) runs for a 39-yard touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the third quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

That brings me to this week’s question: How real are the Chicago Bears?

Head Coach Ben Johnson has done an incredible job of reinventing the culture in Chicago, and his Bears have proven time and time again that if they’re in the game in the final minutes, they can win games. Now they’ve got to prove they can find that early knockout punch and win games in the first three quarters.

If Chicago wants to remain in the playoff picture, it’s going to have to prove it can win against much more formidable opponents in the coming weeks, starting with a meeting with Aaron Rodgers this week, and then trips to Philly and Lambeau.

Best of the rest …

The Bucs remain atop the NFC South, but the Carolina Panthers are making some noise, moving to 6-5 after a victory in Atlanta. Carolina is currently in the ninth seed on the outside looking in, but they’re frisky enough to monitor in the coming weeks with matchups against the 49ers and Rams before their Week 14 bye. Carolina’s Week 12 opponent, the 49ers, rolled the Cardinals and are finding an offensive groove. Christian McCaffrey logged his ninth game with 100-plus scrimmage yards and scored three touchdowns. The Lions find themselves on the bubble this week, but likely won’t be there long. They have a matchup with the Giants this week before a Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Packers.

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