The FanGraphs MLB Free Agent Projections Are Out – Let’s Compare and Discuss ...Middle East

Although I most anticipate the annual MLB free agent projections and rankings from MLB Trade Rumors (which are not out yet), FanGraphs may have the most useful list of all. The way they pair up Ben Clemens’ insider/expert guesses alongside crowdsourced expectations just strikes me as a particularly helpful exercise. So if you haven’t made your way over there yet to check the full list, go do that now.

I’m just going to pull out a few key MLB free agent projections from FanGraphs and compare them to our two existing lists from Baseball America and Tim Britton (The Athletic).

MLB Free Agent Projections and Rankings

We’ll go player by player.

Kyle Tucker, OF

Although there is no change to our belief that Kyle Tucker will not be returning to the Chicago Cubs this offseason, we’re going to stay right on his tail until he signs a deal. I’m way too interested to see how much it costs to keep him, because we already know losing him is going to hurt.

Here’s how the FanGraphs effort shakes out:

Clemens: 10 years, $370M Median Crowdsource: 8 years, $280M Average Crowdsource: 8.5 years, $296.7M

For reference, Baseball America had Tucker on a lower AAV ($32.7M), but spread over 11 years (so $360M total), while Tim Britton had Tucker earning one of those truly massive megadeals: 12 years, $460M.

I have a hard time believing either extreme here. In other words, I don’t think Tucker is getting 12 years at a $38M AAV, and I don’t think he’ll wind up taking fewer than nine years or less than $300M. I guess what I’m really saying there is I think his floor is 10 years and $300M, one way or another.

Indeed, *if* Kyle Tucker has to settle for something as low as 8/$280M, then the Cubs better be all over that, because that’s probably going to look like a steal.

© Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

Alex Bregman, 3B

Alex Bregman is the second player ranked at FanGraphs, and a more frequently accepted Cubs target, depending on how much faith you put in the front office’s willingness to spend this winter ….

Once again, FanGraphs comes in on the lower end of the spectrum:

Clemens: 4 years, $140M Median: 5 years, $155.0M Average: 4.82 years, $153.5M

Although both BA and Britton projected a lower AAV for Alex Bregman, they both had him at six years and a greater overall guarantee ($171M and $180M). And knowing what we know about the Cubs’ preference for shorter-term deals, I think they’d prefer the Clemens model here.

Now, the conflating factor is that the Cubs offered Bregman four years and $120M last season, when Bregman was a year younger and they had one season of Kyle Tucker in the fold (with more uncertainty around Matt Shaw, as well).

But that deal did come with an opt-out (his next deal won’t) and would have cost the Cubs a draft pick (his next deal won’t). Would those changes, plus another solid-but-injury-shortened season make the Cubs willing to up their offer from last season? Possible, but feels unlikely. I do believe we heard that Bregman was legitimately interested in the Cubs (maybe I heard that behind the scenes, I can’t remember), but I’m just not sure they’re going to go there.

But until the Cubs find a way to replace what’s going to be lost with Tucker’s exit, I’m going to beat the drum for free agents like Bregman. The Cubs have only so many places to upgrade the lineup, but they have plenty of money to make it happen.

© Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Dylan Cease, LHP

I’m not just going down the list in order, but the third-ranked player, Dylan Cease, is obviously of special relevance to us again. Not only are the Cubs generally looking for a pitcher of his ilk, but also Bruce Levine has already reported the Cubs’ expected interest in their former draft pick.

Clemens: 5 years, $155M Median: 5 years, $130M Average: 5.05 years, $133.8M

Compared to Baseball America (5/$160M) and Tim Britton (6/$174M), these are relative steals. Getting Cease for just five years and something between $26-$31M per year feels like a solid play. Unfortuantely, I do not believe the Cubs will feel the same way. They just don’t go to this level very often, especially for pitchers, and this is the low end of the spectrum so far.

I like Cease, I think the Cubs will pursue him and will try to make something work, but if he’s going to get $30M+ per year and 5 or more years, I just don’t see it happening.

© Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Kyle Schwarber

I think it takes a whole lot of dreaming to imagine a world in which the Cubs re-sign Kyle Schwarber and bring him back to the North Side of Chicago. But how much fun would that be?

Clemens: 3 years, $105M Median: 4 years, $112.0M Average: 4.12 years, $115M

Hey, if Schwarber has to settle for just a three-year deal like Clemens (3/$105M) and Baseball America (3/$110M) project, maybe the Cubs could find a way to make that work. They seem to hate that sort of dedicated DH, and Schwarber’s fit isn’t exactly ideal with Seiya Suzuki, Owen Caissie, and Moises Ballesteros all set up to play right field/DH next season. But who knows what will happen. Maybe a trade and a signing change the conversation. Maybe Schwarber really wants to come home.

I’m guessing Philadelphia feels a little more like home to him now, though, and that’s where I expect him to remain.

© Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Munetaka Murakami, 3B

If Alex Bregman isn’t your flavor, perhaps you’ll go for the younger, Japanese third baseman coming over to the States this winter. The Cubs have certainly made their presence felt in the market for free agent Japanese stars, and Munetaka Murakami is young enough (26 years old) to more seriously believe they’d hand out a big check.

He ranks 12th on the FanGraphs list.

Clemens: 7 years, $154M Median: 6 years, $132M Average: 5.89 years, $130.5M

God bless the crowd, but they have been consistently lower than the field this time around. Clemens (7 years, $154M), Baseball America (7 years, $140M), and Tim Britton (8 years, $158.5M) are all projecting longer deals for greater overall guarantees. The latter two have smaller AAVs, but I think the Cubs would generally prefer to go shorter with higher AAVs, all things considered.

***

Let’s rapid-fire some of the remaining Cubs-adjacent names in this list of MLB Free Agent projections.

Michael King (16th) is not projected to get a very long deal, with the crowd expecting between 3-4 years and roughly $22M per season. That’s solidly less than both of our other projections for King. That said, there are a bunch of pitchers in this tier of free agency (well, two less with Jack Flaherty and Shane Bieber making surprising option decisions over the last 24 hours), and I think the Cubs probably have their own internal ranking of these guys we’ll never get to see. And that data could make these projections look like steals or massive overpays. Not super helpful, I know, but I just don’t think we yet have a good sense of which guy their IVY system likes best. Other pitchers like that include Merrill Kelly (1-2 years, $16-$20M per year), Zac Gallen (2 years, $18-20M per year), Tatsuya Imai (4-5 years, $16-$20M per year), Brandon Woodruff (2-3 years, $17-$22M per year), Chris Bassitt (1-2 years, $17-$18M per year), Lucas Giolito (2 years, $14-18M per year), Zack Littell (2 years, $10-$12M per year) and others. The Cubs really will have a lot of options … though, again, Bieber and Flaherty were arguably my favorite of the bunch. I think Zac Gallen. is now. One final player of note for now is the OTHER Japanese third baseman, Kazuma Okamoto. He’s four years older than Murakami, but can also theoretically play third base and is projected for a healthy deal via Clemens (4 years, $72M) and the crowdsourced efforts (~3 years, ~$48M). Of course, that’s all relative, as both Baseball America (5 years, $85M) and Tim Britton (4 years, $78.5M) had him making much more money.

Needless to say, this is a pretty good free agent class for what the Cubs need. Yes, it would have been even more exciting if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were still in it, if the Cubs had any reasonable shot at retaining Kyle Tucker, and if Flaherty/Bieber will still around, but it’s still a good group. Moreover, the Cubs don’t have a ton of needs to fill, and they do have plenty of money to spend, especially if Shota Imanaga actually winds up walking. Let’s just hope Jed Hoyer sees it all the same way.

Hence then, the article about the fangraphs mlb free agent projections are out let s compare and discuss was published today ( Thursday 06/11/2025 - 12:50 AM ) and is available on Bleacher Nation ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.

Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( The FanGraphs MLB Free Agent Projections Are Out – Let’s Compare and Discuss )

Also on site :

• AC Milan vs. Como 1907 Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – January 15
• Remembering Cardinal John O’Connor, a Saintly Hero
• Roger Federer backs Carlos Alcaraz to complete ‘crazy’ achievement