Big chances are worth extra in Gameweek 8 of FPL Challenge. We’ve dug into the Opta data to reveal which players create them in the Premier League, who concedes them, and the best players to pick in GW8.
Fantasy Challenge returns for Gameweek 8, and of all the weekly rule changes so far, this might be the one that suits us best. That’s because in GW8, any player who scores a big chance will earn an additional six points, as well as getting the points for scoring.
Big chances are an official Opta data point. They’re a little subjective by nature, defined as a shot judged by an analyst to be an excellent goal-scoring opportunity; essentially a clear-cut chance like a one-on-one. It’s also worth noting that penalties are considered big chances, which is something we’ll be looking to take full advantage of.
Before we reveal our team, let’s break down the data to help you make your own picks, analysing which teams and players are creating the most big chances, and which sides are conceding them at the highest rate.
Crystal Palace have generated more big chances (26) than anyone else in the Premier League. Their total is five more than Manchester City, with Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool all sitting close behind on 19.
At the other end of the pitch, Nottingham Forest have conceded the most big chances with 23, and both West Ham and Burnley have been similarly obliging, allowing 20 each.
Manchester United’s matches, meanwhile, continue to produce chaos at both ends, with Ruben Amorim’s side among the top teams for big chances created and conceded. Only three teams have allowed their opponents more big chances than United (‘faced’ in the table below), while only West Ham have conceded more goals from big chances than them (‘conceded’ in the table below).
On an individual basis, Erling Haaland has already racked up 14 big chances this season, which is comfortably more than anyone else in the division. Behind him, Jean-Philippe Mateta has nine and Antoine Semenyo has seven.
But as always, the raw totals only tell part of the story, and tend to favour those players who play a lot of minutes. Converting them to a per-90 basis can sometimes tell us a more illuminating story.
Or sometimes, it’s the same story. As the below chart shows, Haaland is operating at a different level right now. The Norwegian is averaging 2.11 big chances every 90 minutes, making him the only player to break the two-per-game mark. Alexander Isak (1.49), Mateta (1.34) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (1.26) make up the chasing pack, but none come particularly close to his output.
And while we can’t ignore goals scored from non-big chances – which still count as usual this week – we want to look at those players who combine shot volume with high-quality chances. In other words, those players who take lots of dangerous shots.
Haaland naturally ticks both boxes, but there are intriguing names floating in his orbit. Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon and Brighton’s Brajan Gruda are generating strong numbers in for both shots and big chances per 90.
Right, enough of the background chatter, let’s get into the team. We’ll outline our six-man squad for the week below, although we’ll give you a few extra bonus options as we go.
Goalkeeper
Lucas Perri: Leeds vs Burnley (A)
There are no big chances on offer for goalkeepers – unless they plan on going up for a corner late on – so GW8 is all about clean sheets.
Lucas Perri is our pick in goal this week as Leeds visit Burnley.
Burnley have generated the lowest expected goals total in the league this season, and Leeds have been solid defensively; only five teams have conceded a lower xG total than them.
Perri has missed Leeds’ last four games with a thigh injury but is expected to return. If not, we’ll pivot to Karl Darlow, who has been an able back-up.
Guglielmo Vicario against a shot-shy Aston Villa or Nick Pope away at Brighton would both be fine alternatives.
Defender
Dan Ballard: Sunderland vs Wolves (H)
At the back, Dan Ballard leads all defenders in big chances per 90 (0.82) this season, and will line up at centre-back as Sunderland welcome bottom-of-the-table Wolves.
Vítor Pereira’s side have generated just 6.1 xG this season, the second-worst record in the league. With Omar Alderete sidelined following an injury on international duty, Ballard should come straight into the starting XI.
Trevoh Chalobah at Chelsea, who sits second behind Ballard in big chances per 90 among defenders, is another route if he’s reinstated after suspension.
And given Arsenal’s formidable defensive record, either Riccardo Calafiori or Gabriel Magalhães would be excellent picks too if you prefer to use your Arsenal slot at the back.
Midfielder
Bukayo Saka: Arsenal vs Fulham (A)
Further forward, our Arsenal pick this week is Bukayo Saka. He signed off before the break with a penalty in Arsenal’s 2-0 win over West Ham and returned from international duty with England with a goal and an assist. Viktor Gyökeres may be averaging more big chances per 90 (0.93 compared to Saka’s 0.52), but the fact that Saka is on penalties remains key in a week where big chances are so valuable.
Forwards
Erling Haaland: Manchester City vs Everton (H)
No surprises here. Haaland is the standout option for this week’s format and has a favourable fixture. We’ll be captaining him, too.
Nick Woltemade: Newcastle vs Brighton (A)
Nick Woltemade has impressed during his brief stint at Newcastle. The German has scored three goals in four starts for the Magpies, and given his underlying numbers, he should perform well in the rule change this week.
Just six players in the league can better his rate of 1.18 big chances per 90. Woltemade also showed against Nottingham Forest that he’s more than comfortable from the penalty spot.
Igor Thiago: Brentford vs West Ham (A)
Igor Thiago is someone who must feel like a brand new signing for Brentford. The Brazilian missed most of his debut season at the club with a knee injury, but is now making up for lost time.
He’s scored four goals in Brentford’s first six games, with only Bryan Mbuemo (5 in 2024-25) and Ivan Toney (5 in 2022-23) ever netting more across Brentford’s first six Premier League games of a season.
He now faces a West Ham side who have conceded the second-most big chances in the league (20) and the most goals from those situations (10).
Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 8 FPL Challenge Picks
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FPL Challenge GW8 Tips: Big Chance Data, Best Players and Team Reveal Opta Analyst.
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