Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.
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The projections:
Angels (10)
Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM Connor Brogdon (4.090): $1MM Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM Carson Fulmer (4.018): $1.2MM Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM Jose Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM Carter Kieboom (3.009): $800K Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MMAstros (16)
Mauricio Dubon (5.162): $5.8MM Steven Okert (5.089): $2MM Luis Garcia (5.083): $2.2MM Ramon Urias (5.025): $4.4MM Bryan Abreu (5.022): $5.9MM Enyel De Los Santos (5.015): $2.1MM Chas McCormick (4.161): $3.4MM Isaac Paredes (4.160): $9.3MM Jesus Sanchez (4.118): $6.5MM Jake Meyers (4.044): $3.5MM Jeremy Pena (4.000): $7.9MM Hunter Brown (3.035): $5.7MM Yainer Diaz (3.035): $4.5MM Hayden Wesneski (2.170): $1.5MM Bennett Sousa (2.156): $1.1MM Taylor Trammell (2.144): $900KAthletics (5)
Austin Wynns (5.017): $1.8MM Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K Luis Medina (2.149): $900KBlue Jays (7)
Daulton Varsho (5.128): $9.7MM Eric Lauer (5.091): $4.4MM Dillon Tate (5.018): $1.7MM Nick Sandlin (4.157): $2MM Ernie Clement (3.168): $4.3MM Ryan Burr (3.109): $800K Tyler Heineman (3.066): $1MMBraves (8)
Jake Fraley (5.097): $3.6MM Jose Suarez (4.064): $1.5MM Alek Manoah (4.063): $2.2MM Dylan Lee (3.150): $1.9MM Eli White (3.140): $1.2MM Vidal Brujan (3.014): $800K Joey Wentz (2.166): $1.1MM Nick Allen (2.164): $1.5MMBrewers (7)
Jake Bauers (5.084): $2MM Andrew Vaughn (4.142): $7.8MM William Contreras (4.112): $11.1MM (Brewers hold a $12MM club option with a $100K buyout) Nick Mears (4.022): $1.6MM Trevor Megill (4.002): $4.2MM Garrett Mitchell (3.040): $1MM Brice Turang (2.165): $4.4MMCardinals (9)
Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM John King (4.148): $2.1MM Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MMCubs (4)
Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MMDiamondbacks (11)
Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MMDodgers (9)
Brusdar Graterol (5.167): $2.8MM Tony Gonsolin (5.152): $5.4MM Evan Phillips (5.136): $6.1MM Alex Vesia (5.078): $4.1MM (Dodgers hold a $3.55MM club option with a $50K buyout) Anthony Banda (4.135): $1.7MM Brock Stewart (4.093): $1.4MM Ben Rortvedt (3.135): $1.3MM Michael Grove (3.031): $800K Alex Call (2.161): $1.5MMGiants (5)
JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MMGuardians (8)
Kolby Allard (5.004): $1.9MM Sam Hentges (4.157): $1.3375MM Steven Kwan (4.000): $8.8MM Ben Lively (3.133): $2.7MM Nolan Jones (3.007): $2MM Will Brennan (2.155): $900K David Fry (2.154): $1.2MM Matt Festa (2.153): $1MMMarlins (7)
Anthony Bender (4.153): $2.3MM Braxton Garrett (3.168): $1.53MM Edward Cabrera (3.147): $3.7MM Ryan Weathers (3.066): $1.5MM Andrew Nardi (3.053): $800K Max Meyer (2.166): $1.3MM Calvin Faucher (2.156): $1.9MMMariners (10)
Trent Thornton (5.148): $2.5MM Randy Arozarena (5.129): $18.2MM Logan Gilbert (4.144): $10MM Gabe Speier (4.000): $1.7MM George Kirby (3.151): $5.4MM Tayler Saucedo (3.146): $1.1MM Matt Brash (3.121): $1.8MM Luke Raley (3.106): $1.8MM Gregory Santos (3.055): $800K Bryce Miller (2.153): $2.4MMMets (9)
Luis Torrens (5.105): $2.2MM Tyrone Taylor (5.093): $3.6MM David Peterson (5.089): $7.6MM Nick Madrigal (5.087): $1.35MM Tylor Megill (4.031): $2.6MM Max Kranick (3.011): $1MM Huascar Brazoban (2.170): $1.3MM Francisco Alvarez (2.164): $2.4MM Reed Garrett (2.143): $1.4MMNationals (9)
Jorge Alfaro (5.160): $1MM Luis Garcia Jr. (4.142): $7MM Josiah Gray (4.075): $1.35MM Mason Thompson (4.022): $1MM MacKenzie Gore (4.000): $4.7MM Riley Adams (3.171): $1.5MM CJ Abrams (3.130): $5.6MM Jake Irvin (2.152): $3.3MM Cade Cavalli (2.141): $1.3MMOrioles (14)
Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM Jose Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM Felix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM Albert Suarez (3.019): $900KPadres (7)
Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM Freddy Fermin (2.165: $1.8MMPhillies (9)
Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MMPirates (9)
Dennis Santana (5.126): $3.4MM Johan Oviedo (4.078): $2MM Joey Bart (4.020): $2.7MM Justin Lawrence (3.167): $1.2MM Yohan Ramirez (3.135): $1.2MM Colin Holderman (3.120): $1.7MM Oneil Cruz (3.110): $3.6MM Dauri Moreta (3.056): $800K Jack Suwinski (2.170): $1.7MMRangers (9)
Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM Adolis Garcia (5.095): $12.1MM Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MMRays (16)
Shane McClanahan (4.158): $3.6MM Cole Sulser (4.096): $1.2MM Taylor Walls (4.092): $2MM (Rays hold a $2.45MM club option with a $50K buyout) Griffin Jax (4.091): $3.6MM Garrett Cleavinger (4.060): $2.1MM Shane Baz (3.158): $3.1MM Nick Fortes (3.149): $2.4MM Christopher Morel (3.117): $2.6MM Stuart Fairchild (3.114): $900K Josh Lowe (3.093): $2.9MM Bryan Baker (3.049): $1.5MM Ryan Pepiot (3.005): $3.7MM Alex Faedo (2.169): $800K Kevin Kelly (2.156): $1MM Richie Palacios (2.156): $1MM Edwin Uceta (2.150): $1.4MMRed Sox (9)
Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (Red Sox hold an $8MM club option with a $50K buyout) Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MMReds (13)
Brady Singer (5.156): $11.9MM Santiago Espinal (5.149): $2.9MM Gavin Lux (5.114): $5MM Tyler Stephenson (5.056): $6.4MM Ian Gibaut (4.077): $1.5MM Sam Moll (4.023): $1.2MM Nick Lodolo (4.000): $4.3MM Graham Ashcraft (3.130): $1.4MM TJ Friedl (3.112): $4.9MM Tony Santillan (3.099): $2.4MM Spencer Steer (3.035): $4.5MM Will Benson (3.003): $1.7MM Matt McLain (2.140): $2.6MMRockies (7)
Thairo Estrada (5.153): $3.8MM (Estrada’s contract contains a $7MM mutual option with a $750K buyout) Jimmy Herget (4.069): $1.5MM Mickey Moniak (4.027): $4.2MM Lucas Gilbreath (3.150): $900K Ryan Feltner (3.071): $2.3MM Tyler Freeman (3.046): $1.8MM Brenton Doyle (2.161): $3.2MMRoyals (15)
Taylor Clarke (5.148): $1.9MM Kris Bubic (5.135): $6MM John Schreiber (5.027): $3.8MM Jonathan India (5.000): $7.4MM Kyle Wright (4.151): $1.8MM Kyle Isbel (4.043): $2.7MM Bailey Falter (3.138): $3.3MM Daniel Lynch IV (3.136): $1.3MM Sam Long (3.121): $950K Vinnie Pasquantino (3.101): $5.4MM Angel Zerpa (3.082): $1.2MM Michael Massey (3.068): $2MM MJ Melendez (3.016): $2.65MM Maikel Garcia (2.168): $4.8MM James McArthur (2.150): $800KTigers (14)
Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM Alex Lange (3.145): $900K Andy Ibanez (3.133): $1.8MM Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MMTwins (10)
Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout) Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MMWhite Sox (2)
Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MMYankees (14)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (5.075): $10.2MM David Bednar (5.073): $9MM Mark Leiter Jr. (5.031): $3MM Clarke Schmidt (4.148): $4.9MM Camilo Doval (4.071): $6.6MM Jake Cousins (3.091): $841K Ian Hamilton (3.081): $941K Luis Gil (3.073): $2.1MM Scott Effross (3.063): $800K Jake Bird (3.051): $1MM Oswaldo Cabrera (3.050): $1.2MM Fernando Cruz (3.035): $1.3MM Anthony Volpe (3.000): $3.9MM Jose Caballero (2.170): $1.9MMHence then, the article about projected arbitration salaries for 2026 was published today ( ) and is available on MLBtraderumors ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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