Still, I think I know why the conventional wisdom leans toward their side. It’s because everyone assumes the Democrats will cave—specifically, that four more Democratic senators will join the three who already voted with the Republicans and pass their bill. The Senate returns Monday night and starts voting, so we may see results here very soon.
If the Democrats stick together, they can win this and make Trump cave. It’s worth remembering that in the last shutdown, from 2018 into 2019, it was Trump who caved, and without getting what he wanted. He forced that shutdown over funding for his border wall. Thirty-four days after he started it, he ended it with no border wall funding. Granted, that was a different situation—a new Congress was sworn in in January 2019 with a Democratic House majority, so Trump knew there was zero chance of winning that fight.
The Democrats have three cards to play here that give them a strong hand, if they’re willing to use it.
Second, if Trump henchman Russ Vought starts laying off federal workers, as he has promised, that’s a huge political gift for Democrats. Granted, it’s a horrible real-world thing. So there is that to think about. But in the long term, the best way to protect the federal workforce from these maniacs is to win elections, and they’re not going to win elections by voting for cruel Republican bills.
So the Democrats can win this. Trump, as I noted above, is in trouble. That CBS poll has his approval at 42 and disapproval at 58, and he’s 10 points underwater on immigration, 20 under on the economy, and 30 under on inflation. He is failing, and he is flailing. There are more signs that tariffs are starting to have impact, and now, having destroyed the American soybean industry, he’s desperately trying to cobble together a $10 billion rescue plan for soybean farmers to make up for the pain his tariffs have visited upon them. (And where are you on this, Democrats? You should be talking about soybean farmers every day.)
For God’s sakes, Democrats—shock us for once.
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