We are less than a month away from the start of the Arizona Fall League, the post-season (as in after-season) prospect league that takes place out in Arizona. Each organization sends about seven or eight or nine prospects to the league, playing on combined teams in October and November.
Typically, and speaking only very generally, you see three types of prospects sent to the league: tippy-top prospects who have very little pro experience but whom teams want to see get as much high-level competition as quickly as possible (the rarest type), prospects who are on an organization’s roster bubble or a close Rule 5 Draft/roster protection call (more common), and prospects who are making up time for what they missed during the regular season (most common).
The full rosters have officially been announced, and the Cubs group on the Mesa Solar Sox is almost exactly what Arizona Phil reported last week, with a couple tweaks.
A snippet on each Cubs prospect on the Mesa Solar Sox roster:
Owen Ayers, C, 24 – The Cubs’ 19th rounder last year, Ayers was hitting extremely well in his first full pro season before a late-July injury cut him down. Good to know he can get back, and although bats sometimes develop later for catching prospects, you’d like to see Ayers move to High-A and then Double-A next season, if at all possible. A strong AFL showing, including catching some nastier pitchers, could help his development heading into the offseason.
Ed Howard, SS, 23 – You know the story here. The Cubs’ first-round pick in 2020 has not been able to break through with the bat, thanks to a combination of significant development needs coming out of the draft on that side of the ball (the glove was always great), and a bunch of injuries. The worst, of course, was that nasty hip injury that required surgery. He played in just 11 games at Double-A this year in April before being shut down with an unspecified injury. Gotta keep rooting for the guy.
Thomas Mangus, RHP, 22 – The Cubs’ 18th rounder last year, who made his professional debut this season, throwing 14.1 innings of relief between complex ball and Low-A. He was a slightly above-slot type ($222,000 bonus in the rounds where anything over $150,000 counts against the pool), so you can presume he was relatively well-regarded. Given how little he was able to pitch this year, I assume this is primarily about getting him some more innings for development purposes.
Luis Martinez-Gomez, RHP, 22 – LMG was the Cubs’ 10th rounder in 2023, and has impressed this season out of the bullpen in multi-inning stints while at Low-A and High-A. His situation is just about the only one where you could say it’s not a matter of time missed, and is instead just about getting a potentially promising arm more work against higher-level bats. He is not Rule 5 eligible until after next season.
Cole Mathis, 1B/3B, 22 – Mathis was the Cubs’ second round pick last year and had (expected) Tommy John surgery right after the draft. He was to make his pro debut this season, which he did only briefly at Low-A before his regular season ended in mid-May. Although there’s hope that he can be a quality defender at the infield corners, his bat is what got him drafted so high. Would really like to see him put together a good fall, and he’s probably the guy I’ll be watching most closely.
Koen Moreno, RHP, 24 – The Cubs drafted Moreno in the 5th round in 2020, paying him well above slot to sign out of high school. It’s been a long development road for Moreno, who has also dealt with his share of injuries. He has appeared in just four games this season, all at High-A South Bend, getting good results in a multi-inning relief role. This was a year where he probably needed to take a big step forward, so the AFL could actually wind up being pretty important for him.
Mathew Peters, RHP, 24 – You might remember Peters as the Cubs’ 12th round pick in 2022 because he was the guy who grew NINE INCHES after high school and suddenly was able to throw triple-digits after being basically a non-prospect. It was a pretty extreme developmental play for the Cubs, and he’s thrown just over 50 innings total as a professional since then. His walk rate has stayed above 20% in that time, so I would say there’s a long way to go and probably not a lot of runway left. Peters pitched mostly at Low-A this year.
JP Wheat, RHP, 23 – Another fireballing 2022 draft pick, Wheat was known to need Tommy John surgery after the Cubs took him in the 16th round, and he didn’t make his pro debut until 2024. He threw very few innings that year, and only 33.0 at Low-A this year before his season ended in mid-May. There’s a whole lot of potential and promise there given the premium fastball, but a long way to go. The AFL is a good opportunity for him to get in some innings and work on some things before the offseason. To me, he’s the second-most interesting prospect in this group, and I’ll be very keen to hear how he looks.
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