NFL free agency rankings are rolling out, and one name keeps surfacing at the top: Trey Hendrickson.
The Athletic has Hendrickson ranked as the No. 1 free agent available next month, projecting a three-year, $99 million deal, a $33 million average annual value. That’s elite edge rusher money. That’s “we’re trying to win right now” money.
Pro Football Focus sees it going very differently for Hendrickson in free agency. The analytics site projects Trey Hendrickson landing a one-year, $21 million deal with $17 million guaranteed. That is still a healthy number, but it is $12 million less per season than The Athletic’s projection. It is also $78 million less in terms of total value over the life of the contract.
That is not a minor gap. That is two completely different markets.
Syndication: The EnquirerThe Trey Hendrickson Case
Hendrickson, who was second in Defensive Player of the Year voting just one season ago, will turn 31 before the 2026 season and is coming off core muscle surgery. He battled injuries throughout 2025, which limited him to just seven games and 285 defensive snaps. Hendrickson finished the injury-shortened year with 4 sacks, 3 tackles-for-loss, and 8 quarterback hits. He also ranked sixth among all edge defenders with a 90.0 PFF pass-rush grade as he generated 23 pressures on just 177 pass-rush snaps. The four-time Pro Bowler has now posted five consecutive seasons with a pass-rush grade above 85.0.
Trey Hendrickson isn’t a declining rotational piece. He is a proven finisher. But he is also a 31-year-old edge defender who has logged heavy mileage and has considerable injury risk. Hendrickson has the type of profile that can either push a contender over the top or become a cautionary cap tale. He is the definition of boom-or-bust for a team trying to get over the hump.
Where the Bears Fit
The Bears have needs at all three levels of their defense: interior defensive line, linebacker, and safety. My sense is that their approach this offseason will involve one true splash (whether that’s a signing like Hendrickson or a trade like the one being floated for Maxx Crosby) followed by a series of targeted, less headline-grabbing moves and draft investments.
But the money matters.
The Athletic’s $33 million AAV projection feels steep for a Bears team that will need to create cap space before the transactional window opens. It’s not impossible; we’ve seen NFL teams work the books every year. But it would require commitment and maneuvering.
PFF’s projection ($21 million on a shorter deal) feels far more aligned with Chicago’s likely spending range. Even if it stretches into two or three years instead of one, a structure closer to $20–22 million annually is much more palatable than $33 million.
If the price creeps into that $30M-plus tier, I’d expect the Bears to pivot away from Trey Hendrickson. There is also strategy to consider, mainly when it comes to the NFL Draft.
David Banks-Imagn ImagesIf the Bears address edge rusher before the draft, whether through Hendrickson, a Crosby trade, or another signing, it gives them clarity in April. It allows them to focus early draft capital on the interior defensive line, linebacker, and safety, especially with only one of Kevin Byard III or Jaquan Brisker likely to be retained.
Solve edge early, and the board opens up. Ignore it, and you risk forcing your hand.
The Other Edge Options
Hendrickson isn’t the only name on the board. The Athletic and PFF both released projections for several other edge defenders:
Jaelan Phillips The Athletic: 4 years, $98 million PFF: 1 year, $15 million Odafe Oweh The Athletic: 4 years, $88 million PFF: 4 years, $77 million ($40M guaranteed, $19.25M AAV) Boye Mafe The Athletic: 4 years, $73 million PFF: 3 years, $49 million ($30M guaranteed, $16.33M AAV) Joey Bosa The Athletic: 1 year, $11.5 million PFF: 1 year, $11 million Khalil Mack The Athletic: 1 year, $18 million PFF: 1 year, $14 millionIf you’re thinking long term, Phillips’ four-year projection makes sense from an age standpoint. He’s 27, meaning he’d be Hendrickson’s current age when a long-term deal expires. Even PFF’s one-year, $15 million estimate comes in $6 million lighter than Hendrickson’s one-year projection.
Oweh and Mafe sit in that mid-tier range, expensive, but not top-of-market.
Then there is the veteran bridge route: Bosa or Mack on a one-year deal. That’s a much lighter financial lift and would allow Chicago to evaluate the development of Austin Booker, who closed 2025 strongly and could factor into the equation.
Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn ImagesThe Austin Booker Variable
This all hinges, in part, on how the Bears feel about Booker.
If they believe he’s ready to take a significant leap opposite Montez Sweat, doing nothing major at the edge position is absolutely on the table. Pair Booker with a one-year veteran like Bosa or Mack and allocate resources elsewhere.
But if they view edge rusher as the missing piece to unlock the defense, then Hendrickson becomes very real, at the right price. And that’s the key. At $21–24 million per year? It’s a conversation. At $33 million per year? That’s a different story entirely.
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