In order to hold onto her jobs, Rayner will need to satisfy the Prime Minister’s independent ethics adviser that she acted in good faith and that she unknowingly paid the incorrect amount of stamp duty on her new Brighton home.
There would be huge political consequences if Rayner left Labour’s front bench and it would be a blow for its flagship housing policies, which are aimed at helping renters and those who need affordable homes.
At a time when there is no money, the fact that she has managed to secure any funding from Chancellor Rachel Reeves at all is no mean feat – let alone a new 10-year £39bn Affordable Homes Programme.
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Insiders regularly tell me how well Rayner handles negotiations. She reportedly strikes a balance between being good-humoured and fighting for what she believes, saying things like, “Right, now let’s have the argy-bargy” when it’s time to get down to the numbers.
Finally, she seems to play a role in uniting Labour. It is understood that Rayner talked rebels down and convinced Number 10 to be conciliatory about the ill-fated Welfare Reform Bill.
A loss for Starmer
Whether or not Rayner is forced to resign will now depend on the verdict of Sir Laurie Magnus, Starmer’s independent ethics adviser. Some experts agree that the area of tax law in which she has become caught up – stamp duty and trusts – is complex and easily messed up. At the same time, others argue that given the complexity of her housing situation, she should have sought expert counsel sooner.
One, that stamp duty is complex. Two, more and more people are looking at trusts for their children (which were once the preserve of the very wealthy) and finding themselves with tricky tax problems.
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