A day is a long time in politics, and this week must already feel like a year for Angela Rayner. The scandal surrounding the Deputy Prime Minister and Housing Secretary’s own housing situation rumbles on.
In order to hold onto her jobs, Rayner will need to satisfy the Prime Minister’s independent ethics adviser that she acted in good faith and that she unknowingly paid the incorrect amount of stamp duty on her new Brighton home.
This is now a question of whether Rayner relied on incorrect advice or intended to avoid tax – and whether she should resign.
There would be huge political consequences if Rayner left Labour’s front bench and it would be a blow for its flagship housing policies, which are aimed at helping renters and those who need affordable homes.
As Housing Secretary Rayner has regularly gone into bat for her department with the Treasury to secure funding for affordable social housebuilding.
At a time when there is no money, the fact that she has managed to secure any funding from Chancellor Rachel Reeves at all is no mean feat – let alone a new 10-year £39bn Affordable Homes Programme.
And under her leadership, the housing department is pushing through rental reform to give private tenants more protection from no-fault evictions, rent bidding wars and poor housing conditions.
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Insiders regularly tell me how well Rayner handles negotiations. She reportedly strikes a balance between being good-humoured and fighting for what she believes, saying things like, “Right, now let’s have the argy-bargy” when it’s time to get down to the numbers.
Rayner is also a Housing Secretary who has actually lived in social housing. This has given her authority among voters and housing experts and brought credibility to Labour’s housing plans, particularly its pledges to make sure that all new towns and developments contain at least 40 per cent affordable housing.
Finally, she seems to play a role in uniting Labour. It is understood that Rayner talked rebels down and convinced Number 10 to be conciliatory about the ill-fated Welfare Reform Bill.
A loss for Starmer
If Rayner leaves the front bench, it would also cause difficulties for Keir Starmer. She has people skills which many politicians lack. Her lived experiences, some of which have been incredibly tough, make her empathetic.
Whether or not Rayner is forced to resign will now depend on the verdict of Sir Laurie Magnus, Starmer’s independent ethics adviser. Some experts agree that the area of tax law in which she has become caught up – stamp duty and trusts – is complex and easily messed up. At the same time, others argue that given the complexity of her housing situation, she should have sought expert counsel sooner.
There’s a wider context to this story, too. It highlights several housing policy problems that Labour will have to grapple with.
One, that stamp duty is complex. Two, more and more people are looking at trusts for their children (which were once the preserve of the very wealthy) and finding themselves with tricky tax problems.
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