Anyone who has been inside the offices on Downing Street will know that there is no physical divide between Number 10 and Number 11. The houses are knocked through to form one rather constricted space.
This means that any tension and cooling relationship is felt very quickly. Friendly conversations occur less frequently between the two teams. There is more palpable distance, when things start to go wrong.
When I was Chancellor, the relations between my team and Prime Minister Liz Truss’s team were initially close. Yet after the so-called “mini budget” there was a distinct iciness. By the time I was in Washington DC for the annual International Monetary Fund conference, the atmosphere was glacial.
Finally you pick up the phone and hear quite a loud, insistent voice demanding you come back “immediately”. I returned from Washington and was sacked within about 20 minutes of entering my office in No 11.
For Starmer, the debacle surrounding the removal of the winter fuel payment from pensioners no doubt sits heavily on his mind.
Elements of the press will egg on the Prime Minister to sack his chancellor. Starmer will not fall into this obvious trap, however. He is too cautious for that. He knows he will immediately shorten his political shelf life, if he gets rid of Reeves. He knows that the baying mob will scream for his head, as soon as he sacks her.
square KWASI KWARTENG Take it from me, it's never wise to sack your chancellor
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I expect Starmer would last longer, but he would be damaged and less likely to lead the Labour Party into the election.
I remember after the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021, there was a genuine feeling of elation; a sense, perhaps, of smug contentment. The Conservatives had demolished Labour’s red wall and looked set to dominate the next 10 years. Or so we thought.
Labour are now roughly on about 20 per cent in some polls. There will be fear and some loathing, or at least resentment, in Downing Street. The special advisers will be pointing the finger of blame on each other.
The reshuffle was Starmerite in its caution and tepidity. We should expect more desperate measures, if those poll numbers do not shift soon.
Kwasi Kwarteng is a former Conservative MP. He served as chancellor between September and October 2022 under Liz Truss
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