Reports of Rachel Reeves’s political demise have been exaggerated, but there’s no doubt that relations are more strained between the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.
Anyone who has been inside the offices on Downing Street will know that there is no physical divide between Number 10 and Number 11. The houses are knocked through to form one rather constricted space.
Officials, ministers, special advisers can mingle and walk between the PM’s office and the Chancellor’s office with considerable freedom.
This means that any tension and cooling relationship is felt very quickly. Friendly conversations occur less frequently between the two teams. There is more palpable distance, when things start to go wrong.
People are less friendly, more closed. There should, in theory, be a warm collegiate sense between the teams at no 10 and no 11. But often, when relations are under pressure, an icy frostiness prevails.
When I was Chancellor, the relations between my team and Prime Minister Liz Truss’s team were initially close. Yet after the so-called “mini budget” there was a distinct iciness. By the time I was in Washington DC for the annual International Monetary Fund conference, the atmosphere was glacial.
I remember the Prime Minister’s special adviser repeatedly calling me. The temptation, I freely confess, was to ignore the panicked calls and simply get on with the job. That might be characterised as “a head in sand” approach. It gives temporary peace of mind, but is not to be recommended as a long-term strategy.
Finally you pick up the phone and hear quite a loud, insistent voice demanding you come back “immediately”. I returned from Washington and was sacked within about 20 minutes of entering my office in No 11.
Relations between Starmer and Reeves have admittedly not reached such a stage. All Starmer has done has poached Reeves’s number two, Darren Jones, and made one or two other appointments, with the intention to improve economic expertise in Downing Street.
For Starmer, the debacle surrounding the removal of the winter fuel payment from pensioners no doubt sits heavily on his mind.
This was the worst mistake the Government has made so far. Many have blamed Reeves and her team for this misstep. It is not surprising that Starmer is now trying to reassert himself, taking back control of his own government, as it were.
Elements of the press will egg on the Prime Minister to sack his chancellor. Starmer will not fall into this obvious trap, however. He is too cautious for that. He knows he will immediately shorten his political shelf life, if he gets rid of Reeves. He knows that the baying mob will scream for his head, as soon as he sacks her.
square KWASI KWARTENG Take it from me, it's never wise to sack your chancellor
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This was a lesson Truss learned the hard way. She announced her resignation exactly six days after my dismissal.
I expect Starmer would last longer, but he would be damaged and less likely to lead the Labour Party into the election.
There is no greater contrast between political success and failure when you’re in Downing Street. I was a Cabinet Minister in both of these situations.
I remember after the Hartlepool by-election in May 2021, there was a genuine feeling of elation; a sense, perhaps, of smug contentment. The Conservatives had demolished Labour’s red wall and looked set to dominate the next 10 years. Or so we thought.
Just over a year later, in October 2022 the Conservatives had crashed in the polls, from the fall out of the “mini-budget”. There was panic, there were recriminations and pandemonium.
Labour are now roughly on about 20 per cent in some polls. There will be fear and some loathing, or at least resentment, in Downing Street. The special advisers will be pointing the finger of blame on each other.
Starmer will know that the current polling of his government is a sure path to electoral disaster. He also knows that he can’t move against Reeves without inflicting potential mortal self harm on his own personal prospects of survival.
The reshuffle was Starmerite in its caution and tepidity. We should expect more desperate measures, if those poll numbers do not shift soon.
Kwasi Kwarteng is a former Conservative MP. He served as chancellor between September and October 2022 under Liz Truss
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