Division on tariffs: some officials believe clarity will come in the months ahead; others argue it’s not feasible to wait for complete clarity before adjusting policy.
Doves (Waller, Bowman, allies) argue tariff-driven price increases should be ignored and are pushing for cuts as early as September.
Kansas City Fed’s Schmid pushed back against “inflation ex-tariffs” calculations, calling them meaningless.
Since the July meeting, the debate has sharpened. Doves like Waller and Bowman argue tariff-related price increases should be ignored and are pushing for cuts as early as September, backed by weaker labor data. Hawks, however, see firmer price pressures, especially in services, and credit the Fed’s steady stance for containing tariff effects. Kansas City Fed President Schmid underscored the divide by rejecting Bowman’s practice of calculating “inflation ex-tariffs,” calling it meaningless.
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