An earthquake has undermined Putin’s nuclear strategy – we must seize on it ...Middle East

But in the background, Putin and his other gangster leaders like former prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, have been able to lean on their 5,000 or so nuclear warheads to bully Ukraine and European capitals. However, this strategy has taken a blow recently, and its apparent frailty may be the area the West should exploit in order to gain a just peace for Ukraine.

This is Russia’s largest nuclear submarine base for its strategic nuclear deterrent, and also other nuclear-powered submarines. It is strategically based: originally to be well out of range of European forces, but now also Ukrainian forces. It has access to the vast Pacific Ocean, no doubt to hide from NATO surveillance and launch attacks on the US if need be.

The deafening silence coming out of the Kremlin since the tsunami perhaps suggests there is more than just a bit of flooding and building damage in the area. One just has to consider the damage to the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan after the tsunami there, to see the power and damage that these natural disasters can produce. And besides, the earthquake which caused the damage in Japan was way smaller than this one.

In isolation, all these events are interesting but probably marginal to global security. Yet put together they might be very significant. The idea of nuclear deterrence, apart from “Mutually Assured Destruction”, of course, is balance and equilibrium, and this state of play has kept the peace for over 80 years.

square HAMISH DE BRETTON-GORDON

Trump's bellicose rhetoric only increases the chances of World War Three

Perhaps it is time for the West to play the Kremlin at its own game, and articulate that there is no longer a nuclear equilibrium and that the devastated Russian army is no match for a modern NATO force, now strengthened with hundreds of thousands of Swedish and Finnish soldiers. That the only way forward is to negotiate a just peace for Ukraine; the only alternative to wait for and watch the demise of the current Russian dictatorship? 

But are Keir Starmer and European leaders up to this type of brinksmanship? Probably not. Trump might be, though he has hardly been reliable and straight in his first six months of his new run at the White House.

Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE is a former commander of UK and Nato CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) forces

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