Airport chiefs have set out a £49bn expansion plan which would see the new runaway built within the next 10 years, promising they will not ask for any taxpayers’ money for the mammoth project.
Heathrow bosses are promising to spend £1.5bn to move the very busiest stretch of the M25 – between junctions 14 and 15 – into a tunnel running underneath the third runway.
square HEATHROW AIRPORT How Government could fast track Heathrow third runway - by avoiding Nimbys
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However, experts, campaigners and MPs have warned of years of disruption on the M25 – nicknamed the “road to hell” due to its frequent gridlock – and on other streets around Heathrow.
Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to “override the whims of Nimbys” and is bringing forward new legislation to curb the ability of campaigners to block such projects.
He said “optimism bias” meant big infrastructure projects often took longer and cost more than initially estimated.
The economist is also cynical about the airport’s claim that the project will not involve taxpayers’ money. “It’s highly unlikely that Heathrow and the private sector will be paying for everything,” said Dr Chapman.
Traffic gridlock on the M25 (Photo: Ben Whitley/PA)Airport bosses claim that the expansion – which will also include a new terminal ‘T5X’, expanded Terminal 2 and three new satellite terminals – will add 0.43 per cent to UK GDP.
“For the communities surrounding the airport, a huge amount of pollution they will suffer will come from the extra passengers coming to and from the airport,” said Dr Gratton, an associate professor at Cranfield University.
He said: “I can’t see how this will happen without significant Government intervention. It’s going to be expensive.”
“Heathrow is hemmed in by suburbia, so it becomes frighteningly expensive and disruptive to expand,” said the campaigner. “We’re looking at a decade of disruption.
Rachel Reeves wants ‘spades in the ground’ on the third runway before 2029 (Photo: Peter Cziborra/PA)
McGuiness said he was sceptical about the Government’s timetable: “The lesson from HS2 is that estimates tend to be too optimistic, and that it will go on longer and cost will be far greater than the government assumes.”
Bayley also believes road disruption could go on for “at least 10 years” if there is a major expansion of the airport’s terminals.
Rival expansion plan ‘also disruptive’
The Arora Group, founded by billionaire Surinder Arora, has submitted a rival £25bn expansion plan ahead of the Government’s 31 July deadline for proposals.
The No Third Runway campaign remains cynical. “There will still be road disruption, the demolition of homes. So both plans will still be enormously disruptive – it’s just a question of scale,” said McGuiness.
Woldbye said it had “never been more important or urgent” to expand, arguing Heathorw was “effectively operating at capacity to the detriment of trade and connectivity”.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to look at the submissions before launching a consultation. Planning applications are not expected until 2028.
Labour MP Clive Lewis told The i Paper it would be an “unmitigated environmental disaster”, adding: “People in the area will have to deal with more pollution, more noise and more road congestion.”
Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Olney said a third runway would “inevitably bring disruption to our roads and public transport” as well as “social and environmental costs”.
Reeves said the Government was “one step closer to expanding our biggest airport” and it would help “kickstart economic growth and put more pounds in people’s pockets”.
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