Not a huge addition here, but when you pair it with multiple Cubs-Shane-Bieber connections offered by Jeff Passan, and interest reported by Bruce Levine, it’s worth sharing as further confirmation:
The Chicago Cubs, still in the market for another starter, are one of the teams pursuing Cleveland's Shane Bieber coming away impressed after scouting him in his last rehab start.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 31, 2025Bieber probably has one of the widest variances in possible outcomes post-trade, since it’s conceivable that he could just be good to go, and he’s right back to being a front-two starter. It’s also conceivable that, coming back from surgery, the command is come-and-go, as well as the velocity. Your scouts would need to be very right, and then your pitching infrastructure, too, after Bieber arrives. I do feel good about the latter part with the Cubs at this point.
Some of my thoughts on Bieber overall, as previously discussed:
In terms of performance, obviously there are risks there because of the layoff, and normal post-surgery concerns. But Shane Bieber had seemed to still have “it” before the injury even after suffering a pretty significant velocity drop in his late-20s. He threw 340.0 innings from 2022-2024 (when the velo slipped to sub-92 mph) and posted a 3.12 ERA with peripherals to support those results. That could give interested teams a touch more confidence that he will still be effective even after surgery. I’m sure a lot of eyes will be on the velo and pitch movement today at Double-A.
I do think the contract has to give trade partners a little pause, though.
Shane Bieber is owed about $3.5 million the rest of this season, and then he has a $16 million player option after the season. That means, if he comes back and stinks or has a serious injury setback, the acquiring club could be on the hook for $16 million of immediately sunk cost in 2026. Moreover, his deal comes with a $4 million buyout of that option. So, for him, it’s a $12 million decision, meaning if it’s a borderline case – and you might be happy to be able to keep him for $16 million – he’s still more likely to bolt, at which point you just lost another $4 million for nothing.
None of that is to say you don’t make the trade, but you can do so only if you are really, really confident that Shane Bieber is DEFINITELY going to help you THIS YEAR, and you’d be OK with having him next year at $16 million regardless of what happens. So, again, the price tag in trade should not be enormous for all these reasons, but neither would it be nothing.
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