Researchers estimate that the number of people dying from the heat will increase from an average of 634 a year – between 2011 and 2021 – to somewhere between 3,007 and 10,317 in three decades’ time.
By the 2060s the heat-related death toll will reach between 4,004 and 19,478 and in the 2070s it will hit 4,592 to 34,027, according to the study by University College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, published in the journal PLoS Climate.
“We can mitigate their severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and with carefully planned adaptations, but we have to start now,” she said.
Other adaptations could include better building ventilation and heat management, shady urban forests and greater community support for vulnerable populations.
The researchers analysed the impacts of 15 different climate change and socio-economic scenarios over the next 50 years, comparing:
different levels of warming different amounts of adaptation to protect against the effects of a warming climate ageing populations regional climatic differences the potential impact of power outages – a new approach for heat impact projectionsWhile rising temperatures will be the main driver of heat-related deaths over the next 50 years, the population of England and Wales is expected to increase – and to age significantly, with the greatest increase in population size for those aged 65 and over by the 2060s, who are most at risk.
This study broke England and Wales into nine regions to analyse the impact of climate change in different areas – with heat mortality rates in the North projected to increase less than rates in the warmer South.
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Dr Akshay Deoras, of the University of Reading, who wasn’t involved in the research said the warning felt “more urgent than ever” as another heatwave bears down on the UK.
“To save lives, we must cut greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen adaptation strategies at the same time.”
That’s because global warming made the searing heat that gripped much of Europe in late June and early July much more intense, researchers found.
Meanwhile, the previous heatwave at the end of June and the start of July caused an estimated 355 excess deaths across the UK, researchers have warned.
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