The number of heat-related deaths in England and Wales is set to be at least five times as high in the 2050s as it is today, according to a landmark study.
Researchers estimate that the number of people dying from the heat will increase from an average of 634 a year – between 2011 and 2021 – to somewhere between 3,007 and 10,317 in three decades’ time.
The eventual numbers will depend on the extent of the warming and the degree to which measures are taken to adapt to the heat, such as air conditioning, painting the walls white and putting plants on the roof.
By the 2060s the heat-related death toll will reach between 4,004 and 19,478 and in the 2070s it will hit 4,592 to 34,027, according to the study by University College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, published in the journal PLoS Climate.
“Our research paints a sobering picture of the consequences of climate change. Over the next 50 years, the health impacts of a warming climate are going to be significant,” said Clare Heaviside, of UCL.
“We can mitigate their severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and with carefully planned adaptations, but we have to start now,” she said.
Other adaptations could include better building ventilation and heat management, shady urban forests and greater community support for vulnerable populations.
The researchers analysed the impacts of 15 different climate change and socio-economic scenarios over the next 50 years, comparing:
different levels of warming different amounts of adaptation to protect against the effects of a warming climate ageing populations regional climatic differences the potential impact of power outages – a new approach for heat impact projectionsThis has given the most comprehensive projection for the impact of climate change on the population of England and Wales for the next century, the researchers say.
While rising temperatures will be the main driver of heat-related deaths over the next 50 years, the population of England and Wales is expected to increase – and to age significantly, with the greatest increase in population size for those aged 65 and over by the 2060s, who are most at risk.
Most previous research into the future impact of heat mortality didn’t factor in an ageing population, leading to an underestimation of the number of deaths.
This study broke England and Wales into nine regions to analyse the impact of climate change in different areas – with heat mortality rates in the North projected to increase less than rates in the warmer South.
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Rebecca Cole, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who also worked on the study, said: “Our research shows how increases in heat-related deaths are not just a consequence of rising temperatures — they’re also driven by how we build our cities, care for vulnerable populations, and address social inequality.”
Dr Akshay Deoras, of the University of Reading, who wasn’t involved in the research said the warning felt “more urgent than ever” as another heatwave bears down on the UK.
“If floods and storms are the loud alarms of climate change, extreme heat is its silent killer. It is disproportionately lethal, often going unnoticed until it’s too late,” he said.
“To save lives, we must cut greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen adaptation strategies at the same time.”
In a separate study this week, scientists from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene calculated that climate change tripled the number of heat-related deaths across European cities such as London in the recent heatwaves.
That’s because global warming made the searing heat that gripped much of Europe in late June and early July much more intense, researchers found.
Meanwhile, the previous heatwave at the end of June and the start of July caused an estimated 355 excess deaths across the UK, researchers have warned.
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