Key Points:
Unemployment Rate to Tick Up:• The jobless rate forecast to rise to 4.3% from an unrounded 4.24% last month.• This reflects sequential gains in broader labor slack measures.
Strike Impact Offset:• Some upside from the end of worker strikes (+6k), but not enough to materially lift the headline.
Goldman Sachs expects the June jobs report to confirm a slowing US labor market, which should reinforce the Fed’s gradual dovish shift and maintain downward pressure on the USD, particularly if wage growth signals further disinflation.
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