Zohran Mamdani leads former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, with the contest set to be decided by a ranked-choice count since neither candidate earned a majority of the vote.
"Decision Desk HQ projects no candidate will reach the 50% plus threshold in the first round, sending the New York City Democratic Mayoral primary to Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV)," said Scott Tranter, DDHQ's director of data science. "The City of New York will have their first release of the RCV votes next Tuesday, July 1st."
"Zohran Mamdani will go into the RCV process as the favorite," Tranter added. "In addition to his current vote lead, he has been endorsed by third place finisher Brad Lander and can expect to pick up a substantial portion of Lander’s supporters once their second choice votes are allocated in the RCV process."
Mamdani, a democratic socialist endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), stunned observers Tuesday night with his strong showing against the former governor. Most polls leading up to Election Day showed Cuomo leading, though not outright winning, in the first round.
Other candidates in the crowded primary included longtime city officials like Comptroller Brad Lander, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and former Comptroller Scott Stringer.
New York City permits mail-in votes postmarked by primary day to be counted for a week after, so the subsequent rounds of ranked choice voting aren’t likely to be released until next Tuesday, July 1.
In New York City's ranked-choice system, if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are reapportioned according to their voters’ next preference. The process continues until one candidate receives a majority.
The process in this primary will likely take multiple rounds for a winner to be declared.
Cuomo entered the primary in March after months of anticipation of his attempted political comeback. He resigned from office in 2021 following allegations of sexual harassment from multiple women, which he denies, and criticism accusing him of intentionally undercounting the number of nursing home deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. He has maintained he was following federal guidance.
Despite those controversies and having a relatively high number of voters viewing him unfavorably, he’s consistently led in polls for months leading up to the primary.
But Mamdani has rallied younger and progressive voters to try to oppose Cuomo and organize those opposed to him behind his own campaign. He’s closed the gap in polling in recent weeks and even finished ahead in the final round of one independent public poll from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be the favorite to take on embattled Mayor Eric Adams, who’s running as an independent for reelection, GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa and independent Jim Walden.
But Cuomo and Mamdani may face each other again regardless of who wins the primary.
Cuomo formed his own separate party line, called the Fight and Deliver Party, to run in the general election outside the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the progressive Working Families Party has shown interest in giving its slot on the general election ballot to another candidate if Cuomo wins the Democratic nomination.
It hasn’t addressed who that would be, but Mamdani would have a strong case that it should be him.
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